BPS expects robust exports in April

Dadan Wijaksana and Tony Hotland, Jakarta

After a strong showing in March, Indonesian exports are braced for another healthy performance in April, with the total value of exports expected to surpass US$5 billion, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) predicted on Thursday.

Deputy chairman of the BPS Rusman Heriawan said the upbeat forecast was based mostly on robust global demand amid a pick up in the pace of the world's economic recovery, spearheaded by the U.S., China and Japan.

"While other factors, such as the global oil price, also help, the most notable reason for the strong performance was that the world's economic-recovery pace is in full swing," he said.

Rusman was speaking after a hearing with the House Commission IX for financial affairs, on the agency's operational budget.

The benchmark to gauge Indonesian monthly exports over the past few years has been $5 billion, with a higher value considered a sign of strong exports, and a lower value indicating weak exports. This year, exports first surpassed the $5 billion mark in March.

Various international economic surveys have confirmed that industrialized countries -- powered by the U.S., China and Japan -- are well into a robust and sustainable economic recovery.

The latest optimistic survey came on Tuesday from the Organization for Economic Corporation and Development (OECD), which raised the projection for the world's 30 leading industrial nations to 3.4 percent this year, from the initial prediction made last November of 3 percent.

The U.S. is "cruising ahead", with its economy expected to expand by 4.7 percent this year, the OECD said.

Rusman said the revival of the U.S. economy was reflected by the dollar's recent appreciation against benchmark currencies worldwide. "This is actually good in the long-run for Indonesia as a stronger U.S. economy would increase the demand for imports, including from Indonesia," he said.

The U.S. is Indonesia's top exports destination.

As for the high-flying global oil price, it would likely have little impact on the country, as Indonesia has now become a net- importer.

He said, however, that the details on which commodities would fare well in April would only be available in the BPS' next monthly report, scheduled to be issued early next month.

Rusman said the strong April exports, if materialized, would bode well for the government's full-year target of "breaking the $60 billion mark". Last year, total exports stood at $61 billion.

The country posted $15 billion in exports during the January- March period.

Indonesia needs robust exports to help it generate higher economic growth, which is still relying heavily on domestic consumption as investment remains hard to come by.

At the moment, net exports contribute just slightly above 20 percent of the country's economic growth, as measured by its gross domestic products (GDP).