Boiling Heat and Strong El Nino Hit Indonesia, BMKG Issues Regional Warnings

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the El Nino phenomenon occurring in 2026 will reach a strong level. Based on BMKG monitoring in the third dasarian of June 2026, the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Nino 3.4 region was +1.69 (+1.56), an index indicating El Nino conditions. BMKG analysis shows that during the third dasarian of June 2026, only 0.01% of Indonesia experienced very high rainfall and 1.24% high rainfall, while 34.21% was in the medium category and the remaining 64.55% was low. Rainfall patterns for the same period are predicted to be far above normal in only 14.83% of areas and above normal in 10.10%, while 13.80% are normal and 61.28% are below normal. BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani previously warned of the increasing potential for El Nino strengthening, stating the probability of a strong El Nino has reached 98%, up from an initial estimate of less than 20% which was later raised to 62%. Faisal cautioned that the El Nino climate phenomenon must be watched closely when it coincides with the dry season, as it is currently. “What we need to be wary of is when the El Nino phenomenon occurs simultaneously with the dry season. This will result in less rain, as we are experiencing this year,” Faisal said during the 2026 Regional Inflation Control Coordination Meeting. BMKG warned that this year’s dry season in Indonesia will be longer and drier than the normal average. In its Atmospheric Dynamics Analysis for the third dasarian of June 2026, BMKG stated that 48.9% of Indonesia’s territory (342 ZOM) has entered the dry season, including parts of Jambi, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, and Maluku. BMKG has issued early warnings for several regions to be on alert and standby for meteorological drought disasters, effective for the first dasarian of July 2026. Areas under a ‘Waspada’ (Alert) status include several districts/cities in West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Papua. Areas under ‘Siaga’ (Standby) status include parts of Banten, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and South Papua. As of the third dasarian of June 2026, several regions have experienced long to extremely long consecutive dry days. There are 67 points experiencing long dry spells, 329 points experiencing very long dry spells, and 1 point experiencing an extreme dry spell, defined as more than 60 consecutive days without rain, recorded at the Okaba rain post in Merauke Regency, South Papua, which has had no rain for 61 days.