Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Indonesia may lose Papua and Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam due to the possibility of a foreign conspiracy aimed at destroying the Unitary Republic of Indonesia (NKRI), the Army's chief of staff has said.
Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu said on Monday that Indonesia was facing the possibility of losing both provinces due to threats from modern warfare.
Rampant human rights allegations made by foreign parties against the military in the provinces were part of a foreign conspiracy to separate the provinces from Indonesia, he told a seminar. The conspirators had established several non- governmental organizations to meet their goals, he said, without elaborating.
"If the campaign succeeds, and the United Nations and certain foreign countries step in, it's over (for Indonesia to keep Aceh and Papua) ... We are facing modern warfare, which does not use military power in its initial stages. It is much cheaper, yet more effective than conventional warfare," Ryamizard said.
He added the government had to resolve the Aceh case firmly. Otherwise, the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) would be stronger and able to separate from Indonesia.
There would then be civil war, he said. "GAM would kill locals that supported NKRI." He also urged "one voice" in settling the separatist problem.
"Otherwise, separatism will be widespread and will claim the lives of some 10 million to 30 million people. Am I frightening you? I am not, that is the scenario. We are only trying to guard our country," Ryamizard said. He said his estimates were based on the death toll in Cambodia in the 1970s when 3 million of a population of 7 million were killed. He was once assigned to the UN peacekeeping force in Cambodia.
Separately, military observer Ikrar Nusa Bhakti of the Indonesia Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said the military had been haunted by prejudice following the separation of East Timor from Indonesia two years ago.
"Foreign intervention is possible due to a foreign country's responsibility to protect its citizens who are killed or tortured abroad. It would not happen if the political authority of a country did not order its defense bodies to use an approach based on violence," he told The Jakarta Post.
Ikrar said further violence would be instigated if the government continued to use a military approach.
"Support for the Free Papua Organization (OPM) has been decreasing since Papuans prefer dialog, as offered by the Papua Presidium Council," said Ikrar, who also studies Papua affairs.
He noted that recent clashes in Papua, particularly in Timika, were incited by the government's decision to divide the province into three. Timika was intended to be the capital of Central Irian Jaya province.
TNI is deploying some 9,000 troops in the province, including an additional 2,600 soldiers. TNI Headquarters has said that the additional troops are mandatory to guard several places in Papua, especially along the border with Papua New Guinea.
Resource-rich Papua joined Indonesia in 1963. Indonesia formalized its occupation in 1969 following a UN-sanctioned ballot. Ever since, the poorly armed OPM has fought a sporadic campaign for independence.
Both local and international rights bodies have accused the TNI of rights abuses in a number of areas, including Papua and Aceh.