Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Indonesia may lose Papua and Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam due to the
possibility of a foreign conspiracy aimed at destroying the
Unitary Republic of Indonesia (NKRI), the Army's chief of staff
has said.

Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu said on Monday that Indonesia was
facing the possibility of losing both provinces due to threats
from modern warfare.

Rampant human rights allegations made by foreign parties
against the military in the provinces were part of a foreign
conspiracy to separate the provinces from Indonesia, he told a
seminar. The conspirators had established several non-
governmental organizations to meet their goals, he said, without
elaborating.

"If the campaign succeeds, and the United Nations and certain
foreign countries step in, it's over (for Indonesia to keep Aceh
and Papua) ... We are facing modern warfare, which does not use
military power in its initial stages. It is much cheaper, yet
more effective than conventional warfare," Ryamizard said.

He added the government had to resolve the Aceh case firmly.
Otherwise, the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) would be stronger and
able to separate from Indonesia.

There would then be civil war, he said. "GAM would kill locals
that supported NKRI." He also urged "one voice" in settling the
separatist problem.

"Otherwise, separatism will be widespread and will claim the
lives of some 10 million to 30 million people. Am I frightening
you? I am not, that is the scenario. We are only trying to guard
our country," Ryamizard said. He said his estimates were based on
the death toll in Cambodia in the 1970s when 3 million of a
population of 7 million were killed. He was once assigned to the
UN peacekeeping force in Cambodia.

Separately, military observer Ikrar Nusa Bhakti of the
Indonesia Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said the military had been
haunted by prejudice following the separation of East Timor from
Indonesia two years ago.

"Foreign intervention is possible due to a foreign country's
responsibility to protect its citizens who are killed or tortured
abroad. It would not happen if the political authority of a
country did not order its defense bodies to use an approach based
on violence," he told The Jakarta Post.

Ikrar said further violence would be instigated if the
government continued to use a military approach.

"Support for the Free Papua Organization (OPM) has been
decreasing since Papuans prefer dialog, as offered by the Papua
Presidium Council," said Ikrar, who also studies Papua affairs.

He noted that recent clashes in Papua, particularly in Timika,
were incited by the government's decision to divide the province
into three. Timika was intended to be the capital of Central
Irian Jaya province.

TNI is deploying some 9,000 troops in the province, including
an additional 2,600 soldiers. TNI Headquarters has said that the
additional troops are mandatory to guard several places in Papua,
especially along the border with Papua New Guinea.

Resource-rich Papua joined Indonesia in 1963. Indonesia
formalized its occupation in 1969 following a UN-sanctioned
ballot. Ever since, the poorly armed OPM has fought a sporadic
campaign for independence.

Both local and international rights bodies have accused the
TNI of rights abuses in a number of areas, including Papua and
Aceh.