BMKG Warns of Severe Dry Season, Potential Drought in Several Regions Until October

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has mapped out a number of regions with the potential to experience drought during the 2026 dry season. The agency’s Coordinator for Climate Variability Analysis, Supari, stated that the affected areas are predicted to include southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, southern Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, and western and southern Papua. “According to BMKG predictions, these regions will experience low rainfall conditions from July to October, potentially causing drought,” Supari said in an interview on Tuesday (21/7/2026). BMKG has urged local governments and communities in these areas to increase vigilance and take early anticipatory measures to reduce the impact of the dry season. The agency also regularly issues an Early Warning for Meteorological Drought every ten days. “This is sent to the governors in the affected regions,” he added. BMKG indicated that more than 80 percent of Indonesia is expected to experience below-normal rainfall during the peak of the dry season in August and September, a condition linked to a strong El Niño phenomenon. Supari noted that indications of the drought were already visible in June, with 51 percent of the country recording below-normal rainfall. “For early July, that figure has already reached 70 percent. We predict that in August and September, between 80 and 90 percent of Indonesia will experience below-normal rainfall,” Supari explained. The peak of the dry season is expected in August and September, but the impacts of the drought could still be felt until October or even November in some areas. “This needs to be anticipated by all levels of society. This is also an indication of why BMKG has stated that this year’s dry season will be drier than usual,” Supari concluded.