BMKG warns of prolonged drought impacts in Central Papua

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) at the Mozes Kilangin Station in Timika, Central Papua, has reminded local residents to be alert to potential disasters caused by a prolonged drought lasting until early 2027, triggered by the El Niño phenomenon.

BMKG Timika forecaster Dwi Christianto said on Monday that BMKG central monitoring indicates El Niño conditions will persist for several months from June last year until early 2027.

“According to predictions, from early August until January 2027 El Niño will be at a strong to very strong level. This will affect the dry season conditions that fall from June to August through September, making it longer and drier,” Dwi said.

Due to the strength of the El Niño impact, he said, even though Indonesia usually experiences the rainy season from October to March, the rainfall that falls is likely to be reduced compared to previous years.

In addition to being affected by El Niño, the Mimika region also has the potential to be affected by La Niña with moderate, strong, to very strong categories.

“In June, El Niño was in the moderate category, so rainfall decreased. The average June rainfall in Mimika is 500 mm, but this year it was only 378 mm. Similar conditions occurred in July, where the average annual rainfall is 700 mm but dropped to 276 mm after we measured it,” he said.

The biggest impact of the prolonged drought, Dwi said, is limited access to clean water due to a reduction in groundwater volume.

In response, he said, disaster mitigation needs to be carried out by all relevant stakeholders so that it does not have a wider impact on the community.