BMKG: Three Regions in NTB Face Potential Rainfall Amid Strong El Niño

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts that three regions in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) still have a chance of rainfall over the next ten days. This potential emerges amidst extreme dry season conditions reinforced by a very strong category El Niño phenomenon.

Suci Agustiarini, a forecaster at the NTB Climatology Station, explained that during the second ten-day period of September (11–20 September 2026), the probability of rain in most areas is actually very low, at less than 10 per cent. However, there are exceptions for certain specific points.

“The chance of rainfall exceeding 20 millimetres per ten-day period, at a rate of 10 to 40 per cent, is predicted to occur in parts of Mataram City, West Lombok, and Sumbawa,” Suci stated in Mataram on Friday (11/9/2026).

The emergence of potential rain during this dry season is caused by the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Equatorial Rossby waves. These two atmospheric phenomena trigger cloud formation in the NTB region.

Nevertheless, Suci warned that El Niño still generally dominates with a very strong category. The Nino3.4 Index is recorded at +2.74 degrees Celsius. This phenomenon is predicted to persist for a significant duration.

“The public is advised to remain vigilant regarding the impacts of drought, considering that El Niño is predicted to last until early 2027,” she added.

Based on BMKG data for the first ten-day period of September 2026, rainfall in NTB is generally in the low category (0–50 mm per ten-day period). The highest rainfall was only recorded at the Empang Rain Station, Sumbawa Regency, at 38 mm per ten-day period.

Days Without Rain (HTH) in several areas have even reached the extreme drought category. The longest period without rain was found at the Bolo and Belo Rain Stations, Bima Regency, which have not experienced rain for 115 consecutive days.

Currently, BMKG has set the ‘Alert’ status for meteorological drought for eight regencies and one city in NTB, with a total of 34 districts affected. Of all administrative areas, only Mataram City is not included in this alert status.