BMKG Strengthens Impact-Based Early Warning System to Reduce Disaster Risk

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is strengthening its weather early warning system through the implementation of Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) to support the Aksi Merespons Peringatan Dini (AMPD) initiative in Indonesia. Plt Deputy for Meteorology at BMKG, Andri Ramdhani, stated that the service transformation is a response to the increasing frequency of hydrometeorological disasters in Indonesia between 2010 and 2025, which have affected communities, infrastructure, public services, and economic activity. “We must shift from merely reporting what the weather will be to reporting what the weather will cause, along with recommended actions. Through IBF, BMKG is designing information services that are much more specific, down to the sub-district and village level,” Andri said on Wednesday (24/6). According to him, the IBF service will provide daily impact forecasts for up to 10 days ahead, updated every 12 hours. BMKG is also developing a nowcasting service that provides short-term weather forecasts for one to six hours ahead, updated every 10 minutes. The service is supported by artificial intelligence technology integrated with weather radar data and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), enabling it to produce faster and more specific information regarding the potential impacts of extreme weather. Andri explained that the intelligent information system will support various strategic national sectors, including disaster mitigation, food security, transportation, energy, water resources, the environment, tourism, and infrastructure development. To strengthen its implementation, BMKG, together with several ministries and agencies, is drafting joint standard operating procedures (SOPs), forming cross-agency teams, and building an integrated monitoring dashboard based on real-time data. Additionally, BMKG is collaborating with the Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs and telecommunications operators to disseminate early warning information to the public via mass short message services, or SMS Blast. The initial implementation of the IBF system will be carried out in the Greater Jakarta-Punjur area as a pilot project before being expanded to other regions across Indonesia. BMKG hopes that the development of IBF, integrated with AMPD, will make Indonesia’s early warning system not only capable of producing accurate information but also of encouraging concrete actions to reduce disaster risk, minimise casualties, and limit economic losses caused by extreme weather.