BMKG Reveals Factors Behind Extreme Rainfall in Jakarta
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has projected that rainfall potential in the Greater Jakarta region will decrease in the coming week, although localised rainfall will still occur across some areas.
This statement was made by Andri Ramdhani, Deputy for Meteorology at BMKG, in response to heavy rainfall that has occurred in Jakarta and surrounding areas over the past several days.
“This situation is influenced by a combination of several atmospheric dynamics factors that simultaneously increase the formation of rain clouds in western Java,” said Andri to Republika on Monday, 9 March 2026.
Andri explained that the first factor involves the interaction between monsoon winds from Asia blowing from the north with westerly winds from the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia. This increases the supply of water vapour to the Java region and surrounding areas, supporting the formation of rain clouds. The second factor, according to Andri, is the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is currently traversing Indonesian territory.
“This also reinforces the process of rain cloud growth in the Java island region,” said Andri.
Additionally, Andri noted that on 6-7 March 2026, there was a significant intensification of a cold surge and CENS (Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge), which is a strong wind flow from the northern hemisphere that crosses the equator towards Indonesian territory.
“This further strengthens the water vapour supply and rain cloud growth in western Indonesia,” said Andri.
Andri also mentioned that there are currently two tropical cyclone seeds in the vicinity of Indonesian territory: Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S in the Indian Ocean south of Central Java and 95W in the Pacific Ocean north of Papua. However, both have a low probability of developing into tropical cyclones and do not pose a direct impact on the Jakarta region.
“The impact is more dominant in increasing wave heights in several Indonesian sea areas,” said Andri.
Regarding future weather prospects, Andri projected that in the coming week, rainfall potential in the Greater Jakarta region is expected to decline compared to recent days.
“Nevertheless, moderate to heavy rainfall still has the potential to occur locally, particularly in Tangerang Regency, Tangerang City, South Tangerang, West Jakarta, South Jakarta, the Seribu Islands, Bekasi Regency and City, Bogor Regency and City, and Depok City,” said Andri.
BMKG has urged the public to remain vigilant against extreme weather potential, particularly heavy rainfall that may be accompanied by lightning or thunder and strong winds.
“The public is expected to pay attention to weather conditions before engaging in activities, particularly for outdoor activities as well as travel by land, sea and air,” said Andri.