BMKG Issues Warning: Extended Dry Season Imminent
The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) has urged the public to begin preparing for a dry season that is predicted to be longer and drier in 2026. Preparedness is essential to anticipate the impacts on water availability, the agricultural sector, health, and the potential for forest and land fires.
The Head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani, stated that the peak of the dry season is expected to occur between July and September 2026, with most parts of Indonesia experiencing it in August.
In July, the peak of the dry season is predicted to occur in 83 Seasonal Zones (ZOM), representing approximately 12.26 per cent of Indonesia’s land area. This figure is expected to increase to 369 ZOM, or 48.84 per cent of the land area, in August, before decreasing to 169 ZOM, or 25.41 per cent, in September.
“The regions predicted to experience the peak of the dry season in July 2026 include parts of Sumatra, small parts of Kalimantan and Java, southern East Nusa Tenggara, northern West Sulawesi, western Central Sulawesi, small parts of Maluku, southern Southwest Papua, central West Papua, and eastern Papua,” Faisal said, as quoted from the BMKG website.
According to BMKG, the peak of the dry season in August is expected to cover central Sumatra, most of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, parts of East Nusa Tenggara, most of Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, parts of Maluku and North Maluku, as well as most of Papua.
BMKG’s Deputy for Climatology, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, stated that this year’s dry season is predicted to be drier and longer than normal conditions. This situation is influenced by the likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to persist until early 2027.
“BMKG predicts that the El Niño phenomenon will continue until the beginning of 2027, with a 98 per cent chance of reaching moderate intensity and a 62 per cent chance of reaching strong intensity. However, the impact on Indonesian regions will coincide with the dry season period until mid-October,” said Ardhasena.