BMKG forecasts the 2026 dry season will be longer than usual

BMKG projects that the 2026 dry season will generally be below normal or drier than usual in 451 ZOM (64.5%) and normal in 245 ZOM (35.1%). Conversely, only 3 ZOM (0.4%) in Gorontalo and Southeast Sulawesi are potentially experiencing above normal or wetter conditions. “With these conditions, the duration of the dry season across 57.2% of Indonesia is predicted to be longer than normal,” said BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani at a press conference on the initial forecast for the 2026 dry season at the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Building, Jakarta, on Wednesday (4 March). Responding to various risks expected during the 2026 dry season, Faisal emphasised the importance of preventive steps by ministries, agencies, local governments, and all levels of society. In the agriculture sector, farmers should promptly adjust planting schedules by choosing water-efficient, drought-tolerant varieties with shorter harvest cycles. “This step must be accompanied by strengthening the water resources sector through the revitalisation of reservoirs and improvement of distribution networks to ensure the availability of clean water for domestic needs as well as for the operation of hydroelectric plants in the energy sector,” he said. In addition to water management, vigilance against environmental impacts remains a priority. Local governments should prepare rapid response mechanisms to address declines in air quality and increase readiness in the forestry sector to prevent forest and land fires amid the longer dry season in 2026. BMKG has issued early warnings regarding potential extreme weather expected on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. BMKG notes that Lebaran 2026 and Idul Fitri holidays in 1447 H/2026 M are still shadowed by heavy rainfall in several regions. BMKG identifies the development of the Tropical Cyclone 90S seed in the southern Indian Ocean off Java. BMKG has announced weather forecasts for 3 March 2026 and for 2 March 2026. BMKG predicts parts of Indonesia will enter the dry season earlier, with the peak in August. The agency also forecasts that the 2026 dry season will be drier than in 2025, with an earlier onset in April 2026. See the list of affected areas here.