BMKG: El Niño Expected to Last from June 2026 to May 2027

Jakarta, Kompas.com - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts the El Niño phenomenon will become active in June 2026 and run until around March to May 2027. BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fatani said that the El Niño affecting Indonesia will have an intensity from moderate to strong. ‘So, if this year it is active, it will end around March to May in 2027,’ Fatani said in Senayan, Jakarta, on Saturday (23 May 2026). ‘For this year, El Niño is expected to become active in June, with an intensity roughly moderate, then moderate to strong,’ he added. However, Fatani went on, the condition that needs to be watched is when El Niño occurs together with the dry season in Indonesia. That situation could make the dry season longer and drier than the average condition in the last 30 years. ‘And that is what we need to be wary of when June, July, August come; the peak of the dry season in August, September, it could make the dry season in Indonesia longer and drier than what occurred in the last 30 years on average,’ Fatani explained. BMKG notes that the areas of Indonesia most affected by El Niño are generally located south of the equator, such as Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, areas such as North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Aceh, and northern Kalimantan are said to be less significantly affected. According to him, the measure is taken to fill water reservoirs in more than 220 reservoirs owned by the government. ‘We are conducting weather-modification operations to fill these water reservoirs so that food self-sufficiency can be guaranteed this year,’ Fatani said.