BMKG: Dry season in West Java to arrive earlier, peaks in August

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has predicted that the 2026 dry season in West Java will arrive earlier and prove more severe compared to normal conditions. The forecast is based on atmospheric dynamics analysis and climate models utilising the standard normal period of 1991–2020.

According to Teguh Rahayu, Head of BMKG Class I Bandung, most of West Java is predicted to experience below-normal rainfall characteristics, with the peak of the dry season anticipated in August 2026 and drought duration ranging from 13 to 15 ten-day periods, likely exceeding normal duration.

The onset of the dry season in West Java is forecast to progress in stages from March through June 2026, with most regions commencing the dry season by May 2026. Smaller areas of Bekasi and Karawang are predicted to enter the dry season as early as March 2026. By April 2026, the dry season is expected to expand across Bekasi, Karawang, Purwakarta, Subang, Indramayu and parts of Cirebon.

From May through June 2026, the dry season is projected to encompass most of West Java, including Bogor, Sukabumi, Cianjur, Greater Bandung, Garut, Sumedang, Tasikmalaya, Pangandaran, Majalengka, Kuningan, Ciamis and Banjar.

Given these conditions, several potential impacts require early anticipation, including meteorological drought, reduced availability of clean water, disruption to agricultural irrigation systems and increased risk of forest and land fires, according to Rahayu.

BMKG has advised regional governments and communities to implement anticipatory measures, including optimising water resource management and adjusting agricultural planting calendars in the farming sector.