BMKG Confirms No Indication of Godzilla El Niño Occurring in 2026

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has confirmed that there is no indication of a super El Niño phenomenon, often referred to as Godzilla El Niño, occurring in 2026. The Head of the BMKG Tunggul Wulung Meteorology Station Data and Information Dissemination Working Team in Cilacap, Teguh Wardoyo, stated in Cilacap, Central Java, on Tuesday afternoon (14/4/2026) that up to the first semester of 2026, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain in a neutral phase. “Entering the second semester, ENSO has the potential to shift towards a weak El Niño or even moderate, with a probability of around 55 percent, particularly from the June to August period,” he said. Teguh explained that ENSO is a global climate phenomenon resulting from the interaction between the sea and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean, marked by changes in sea surface temperatures and air pressure. The phenomenon has three main phases: El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral. El Niño is characterised by positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific region (Nino 3.4), while La Niña is the opposite condition with negative anomalies. According to him, the impact of El Niño in Indonesia generally involves a decrease in rainfall, although it is heavily influenced by the sea temperature conditions in Indonesian waters. “If the sea temperatures in Indonesia are sufficiently cool, El Niño can significantly reduce rainfall. However, if the sea temperatures are relatively warm, the impact may not be too pronounced,” he said. Meanwhile, he added, La Niña tends to increase rainfall in Indonesia, especially if accompanied by warming of the sea surface temperatures in Indonesian waters.