Bitcoin's Fate in September 2026
The price of Bitcoin is expected to remain in the range of US$60,000 to US$66,000 (Rp1.07 billion to Rp1.18 billion) per coin until the end of September this year. On Sunday, 16 August 2026, Bitcoin was trading at around US$62,900 (Rp1.12 billion), indicating that the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains in the middle of the projected price range.
Bitcoin’s movement over the coming weeks is expected to remain heavily influenced by United States monetary policy. Traders and investors are now watching the direction of the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate before deciding on strategies to buy or sell Bitcoin. The market is also still facing uncertainty regarding interest rate policy.
CME FedWatch data shows that market participants use Fed Funds Futures contract prices to estimate the likelihood of interest rate changes at each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Previously, a 247WallSt report said the probability of a rate hike in September 2026 stood at around 32 percent. However, market expectations can change quickly in response to inflation data, labour figures, and US economic developments.
Bitcoin volatility has the potential to increase in September because two important agendas are taking place close together. First, the US Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote on the Clarity Bill on 15 September 2026. The vote relates to efforts to advance discussion of digital asset regulation in the Senate and requires 60 votes to move to the next stage. Reuters reported that the future of the Clarity Bill still faces uncertainty after the Senate postponed its discussion until September this year.
Second, the Fed will hold an FOMC meeting on 15-16 September 2026, with the monetary policy decision scheduled for the second day. The meeting is also one of those accompanied by economic projections, or the Summary of Economic Projections. Both agendas have the potential to act as catalysts for Bitcoin’s movement.
If the Fed signals a tighter monetary policy, interest in risk assets such as Bitcoin could come under renewed pressure. Conversely, signals of policy easing could increase the appeal of crypto assets.
In a negative scenario, Bitcoin could potentially retest the US$55,000 level, or Rp980 million. Pressure could intensify if geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict and dispute between the US and Iran, continue.