Bitcoin Response Following Fed Rate Hike Under Scrutiny, Indodax Provides Explanation
The Federal Reserve (The Fed) has raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 3.75%–4.00% during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on 15–16 September 2026. The decision was made unanimously and marks the Fed’s first interest rate hike since 2023.
The hike did not immediately depress Bitcoin (BTC); instead, the cryptocurrency moved upwards from approximately US$75,400 prior to the announcement to the US$76,000 area after the decision was released on Thursday (17/9).
Indodax Chief Marketing Officer, Aloysia Dian, explained the reasoning behind this movement. She assessed that the response demonstrates that the relationship between macroeconomic policy and crypto asset prices does not always function directly.
“Interest rate policy remains an important factor, but it is not the sole driver of the crypto market. Price reactions are also influenced by pre-existing expectations, capital flows, sentiment, and specific developments within the crypto industry. In this instance, the rate hike was widely anticipated, so much of its impact was likely reflected in the price before the decision was announced,” Dian explained, as quoted from her statement on Thursday, 17 September 2026.
It is noted that leading up to the FOMC decision, the market had already priced in a high probability of an interest rate hike. When the final result aligned with expectations, much of the pressure could be said to have been reflected prior to the announcement. In other words, a decision that is widely anticipated by the market does not always result in additional negative reactions.
Although Bitcoin strengthened following the announcement, the direction of Fed policy remains a key factor for the market to monitor. Recent projections show that the majority of Fed officials still see the possibility of further rate hikes through the end of 2026. The Fed also raised its 2026 inflation projection to 3.7% from the previous 3.6%, while the economic growth projection was increased to 2.3%.
The US central bank’s focus remains on controlling inflation. However, the direction of future policy remains undecided and will continue to depend on economic data developments. Therefore, the market needs to view Fed policy as one part of a broader context, alongside factors such as liquidity, capital flows, sentiment, and developments within the crypto industry.
According to Aloysia, these conditions mean that investors need to view Bitcoin’s movement following the FOMC more proportionally. “The strengthening of Bitcoin after the FOMC should be viewed as part of broader market dynamics, rather than a sign that all risks have subsided. Investors still need to closely monitor inflation trends, subsequent Fed policies, institutional capital flows, and global liquidity conditions,” she added.