Bitcoin held at $78,000 as market awaits ETF inflows and The Fed
Bitcoin’s rally throughout August demonstrates that investor interest in crypto assets remains very strong. Bitcoin is currently held within the range of 78,000 US dollars per bitcoin, after failing to maintain levels at 80,000 US dollars.
Subsequent movements will be influenced by exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and the direction of US Central Bank policy, or The Fed. Bitcoin previously strengthened by approximately 26 per cent from 62,700 US dollars to reach 81,235 US dollars. However, the largest cryptocurrency subsequently corrected and moved back below the psychological 80,000 US dollar level.
Yudhono Rawis, CEO and Founder of FLOQ, a crypto asset investment platform, stated in Jakarta on Saturday (5/9) that this correction has not changed the overall outlook for Bitcoin. However, the market has now entered a testing phase to see if investor demand remains strong enough to support prices.
“The Bitcoin rally throughout August shows that investor interest in crypto assets is still very strong. However, after failing to hold above 80,000 US dollars, the market is now entering a phase of proof,” said Yudhono.
According to him, investors need to closely monitor spot demand and institutional fund flows to measure market strength following the rally.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the US recorded net inflows of approximately 2.71 billion US dollars during the week ending 24 August. Bitcoin accounted for the largest portion, with inflows of around 1.92 billion US dollars.
However, these fund flows have begun to slow. Data from Farside Investors shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately 20.9 million US dollars on 28 August, after previously booking positive inflows for several days.
Yudhono stated that the consistency of ETF flows will be a crucial indicator while Bitcoin moves within the 77,000-80,000 US dollar range.
“If ETF flows return to positive when Bitcoin is in the 77,000-80,000 US dollar area, it could indicate that large investors still view the correction as an opportunity to build positions,” he added.
In addition to ETF flows, the market is also watching the direction of US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on 28 August was responded to as a hawkish signal. Warsh emphasised that US inflation remains above the two per cent target and that inflation developments in recent months have not shown significant enough improvement.
Entering September, US employment data for August, scheduled for release on 4 September, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September will be focal points for the market. Both sets of data will be considered ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 15-16 September 2026.
Yudhono expects Bitcoin volatility to remain high throughout September as the market becomes increasingly dependent on economic data.
“The market will be very sensitive to US labour and inflation figures. If the data shows the economy beginning to cool without inflation surging again, space for risky assets to strengthen again will open up,” he said.
Conversely, persistently high inflation could extend pressure on Bitcoin by narrowing the scope for US monetary policy easing.
In the short term, the 80,000-81,000 US dollar level remains a critical zone for Bitcoin. If it can break through and hold above this zone, the momentum for strengthening is likely to reform. However, if it fails to reclaim 80,000, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate while awaiting the next macro catalyst.
“The question is not merely whether Bitcoin can return to 80,000 US dollars. What is more important is whether 80,000 US dollars can eventually transform from resistance into support,” said Yudhono.
According to him, signals of strengthening will be more robust if such a change is accompanied by the return of institutional capital flows and more conducive macroeconomic conditions.