Birth Rate Drops, Population of This Champion Nation Threatened with Decline
India is facing a major demographic shift after its total fertility rate (TFR) fell below the threshold needed to maintain the population in the long term. The latest data shows India’s TFR now stands at 1.9 children per woman, lower than the population replacement level of 2.1.
A recent report from the Sample Registration System (SRS), released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, shows the decline marks an important milestone in the demographic history of the country of around 1.5 billion people. In the early 2000s, India’s fertility rate was still around 3.3 births per woman.
“Total fertility rates often fall when more women in a society have access to education, contraception, and more decision-making roles in the household,” said Indian development economist Dipa Sinha. She added that the rising cost of living and the expense of raising children also encourage families to have fewer children.
The decline in India’s birth rate has actually been underway for several decades. Since the 1970s, the Indian government has run various population control programmes to address concerns over population explosion and resource constraints. Nonetheless, India still recorded high population growth and even surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. However, the latest trends show the population growth rate is starting to slow significantly.
Aside from broader access to education and contraception, the decline in infant mortality is also an important factor. SRS data shows the infant mortality rate fell from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 live births in 2024. When a child’s chances of survival are higher, families tend not to feel the need to have many children.
Differences in fertility rates are also clearly visible between regions. The relatively poor state of Bihar still records a TFR of 2.9, while Uttar Pradesh is at 2.6. By contrast, the capital New Delhi records only 1.2 births per woman. Southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala also have low fertility rates, at around 1.3 each. According to Sinha, faster economic development, improved education, and a stronger position for women in southern India are the main factors behind the low birth rate in that region.
The decline in the birth rate raises concerns about India’s economic future. For the past two decades, India has enjoyed a demographic dividend, a condition where the productive-age population is larger than the non-productive age group. This phase has helped sustain the country’s economic growth. However, experts warn that if the declining birth trend continues, India could face a shrinking workforce and an increase in the elderly population within the next 30 to 40 years.
“If fewer children are born, then in about 30 to 40 years, India will have more elderly people who cannot participate in the workforce as much as before, thus posing challenges for the country’s workforce,” said Sinha.
This demographic change also has the potential to trigger new political dynamics. Northern Indian states with higher birth rates are expected to gain a larger share of the population compared to the southern regions. This condition could affect the distribution of parliamentary seats and central government budget allocations in the future. Meanwhile, several regional governments have begun offering incentives to encourage births. The state of Andhra Pradesh, for example, provides an incentive of 30,000 rupees for the birth of a third child and 40,000 rupees for a fourth. Some other states are also expanding access to fertility services and government-funded IVF programmes.
The phenomenon of declining birth rates is not unique to India. Several Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, and South Korea record even lower fertility rates. China’s TFR is now around 1.0 children per woman, Taiwan around 0.86, while South Korea records about 0.75 children per woman, one of the lowest rates in the world.