BI Survey Signals Slower Credit Growth in 2026

Bank Indonesia (BI) has recorded a projection that banking credit growth in 2026 will decline to 7.51 percent. This figure is lower than the previous survey result of 8.06 percent and falls below the government’s target range of 8 percent to 11 percent.

“Respondents estimate that outstanding loans until the end of 2026 will grow by 7.51 percent (yoy), lower than the realised credit growth in 2025 of 9.69 percent (yoy). This estimate is moderated compared to respondents’ previous survey period estimate for outstanding credit growth in 2026 of 8.06 percent (yoy),” BI wrote in its Banking Survey, cited on Monday (20/7/2026).

The survey also indicated that Third-Party Funds (DPK) at the end of 2026 are estimated to grow by 6.18 percent annually, lower than the 13.83 percent growth in 2025.

“This estimate is moderated compared to respondents’ previous survey period estimate for DPK growth in 2026 of 8.47 percent (yoy),” BI wrote.

Meanwhile, Head of the BI Communication Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, stated that new loan disbursements in the second quarter of 2026 increased compared to the first quarter of 2026. This is reflected in the Weighted Net Balance (SBT) of new loans at 93.08 percent, higher than the 38.74 percent recorded in the previous quarter.

“New credit growth occurred across all types of use, reflected by the increased SBT values for Working Capital Loans (KMK), Investment Loans (KI), and Consumer Loans (KK),” Denny said.

The increase in consumer loans was driven by rising demand for Home Ownership Loans (KPR) or Apartment Ownership Loans (KPA) with an SBT of 78.20 percent, Motor Vehicle Loans at 67.95 percent, Multipurpose Loans at 69.71 percent, and Unsecured Loans at 49.70 percent. Meanwhile, demand for credit cards slowed with an SBT of 30.18 percent.

Sectorally, the highest new loan disbursements in the second quarter of 2026 occurred in the transportation, warehousing, and communications sector with an SBT of 91.86 percent, followed by education services at 83.03 percent, processing industry at 73.78 percent, construction at 73.37 percent, and health services and social activities at 70.09 percent.

According to Denny, new loan disbursements in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to continue growing with an SBT of 84.65 percent. Lending priorities remain dominated by Working Capital Loans, Investment Loans, and Consumer Loans.

On the other hand, the survey results show that banks implemented more cautious lending standards in the second quarter of 2026. This is reflected in a positive Lending Standard Index (ILS) of 1.03, particularly for mortgage loans (KPR/KPA) and other consumer loans.

“The more cautious lending policies include aspects such as loan interest rates, credit ceilings, credit agreements, loan tenors, and approval fees. In the third quarter of 2026, lending standards are expected to be more accommodative, with a negative ILS of 2.25,” Denny said.