BI Survey Projects Retail Sales Performance to Remain Growing in March 2026, With a Caveat

Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey forecasts retail sales performance in March 2026 to remain growing. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR), predicted to grow by 2.4% (year-on-year/yoy). However, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia’s Communication Department, stated that this IPR forecast is lower than the previous month’s actual growth of 6.5% (yoy). “The retail sales performance is primarily supported by growth in the spare parts and accessories group; the food, beverages, and tobacco group; as well as the cultural and recreational goods group,” said Denny, quoted from his statement in Jakarta on Monday. On a monthly basis, retail sales in March 2026 are forecasted to grow by 9.3% (month-to-month/mtm), higher than February 2026’s growth of 4.1% (mtm). This increase is driven by the performance of the majority of groups, particularly the information and communication equipment group; the motor vehicle fuel group; and the clothing sub-group, in line with rising household demand during the national religious holiday period of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H. Regarding the actual performance in February 2026, the IPR grew by 6.5% annually (yoy), higher than January 2026’s IPR of 5.7% (yoy). This growth was supported by increased sales in the majority of groups, particularly the spare parts and accessories group; the food, beverages, and tobacco group; and the clothing sub-group. On a monthly basis, retail sales in February 2026 grew by 4.1% (mtm), an improvement compared to the previous month, which was in a contraction phase of 2.7% (mtm). This increase was supported by sales performance in the spare parts and accessories group; the food, beverages, and tobacco group; as well as the clothing sub-group, in line with rising public demand during the Ramadan period. From the price perspective, inflationary pressure over the next three months, i.e., May 2026, is expected to increase, while over the next six months, i.e., August 2026, it is expected to remain relatively stable. This is reflected in the General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for May 2026 at 157.4, higher than the IEH for April 2026 at 153.9, in line with rising raw material prices. Meanwhile, the IEH for August 2026 is forecasted at 157.2, relatively stable compared to the IEH for July 2026 at 157.1.