BI Predicts Inflationary Pressures to Ease in September

Bank Indonesia (BI) predicts that inflationary pressures will ease in September, according to its June 2026 Retail Sales Survey. BI recorded the Expectations Price Index (IEH) for September 2026 at 155.2, lower than the August 2026 IEH of 178.0. The forecast decline in retail prices for September aligns with an expected drop in retail sales, reflected by the Expectations Sales Index (IEP) falling to 148.3 from the previous period’s 159.8. “Respondents indicated that the decline in the September IEP was influenced by normalisation following the Republic of Indonesia’s Independence Day (HUT RI) activities,” the survey stated. Conversely, the IEH for December 2026 is forecast at 168.1, higher than the November 2026 figure of 167.5, in line with the Christmas and New Year 2027 (Nataru) holiday period. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales Survey results show the Real Sales Index (IPR) was recorded at 225.0. This performance was supported by annual growth in sales of spare parts and accessories, other household equipment, and other goods. On a monthly basis, retail sales in June 2026 grew by 0.7% (mtm), an improvement compared to the previous month’s decline of -1.5% (mtm). “This development is in line with sustained demand during the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) period and school holidays,” BI wrote.