BI East Java forecasts Surabaya retail sales to remain stable in May

Bank Indonesia (BI) East Java Province estimates that retail sales in Surabaya will remain stable in May 2026, according to the Retail Sales Survey (SPE). “Retail sales performance in Surabaya City in May 2026 is forecast to remain stable,” said Head of the Bank Indonesia East Java Representative Office, Ibrahim, in Surabaya on Thursday. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) for May 2026, which is projected to reach 473.4, relatively stable compared to the April 2026 realisation of 473.3. The sustained sales activity is supported by increased public demand during the National Religious Holidays (HBKN) period, including Ascension Day of Jesus Christ, Eid al-Adha, and Vesak Day. On an annual basis, retail sales in May 2026 are forecast to contract by 3.1 percent (year-on-year/yoy), but this shows an improvement compared to April 2026, which contracted by 3.7 percent (yoy). The improvement is primarily driven by increased sales in the spare parts and accessories group, as well as cultural and recreational goods. On a monthly basis, retail sales in May 2026 are forecast to grow by 0.02 percent (month-to-month/mtm), following a contraction of 9.3 percent (mtm) in April 2026. This increase is supported by improved sales in the spare parts and accessories group and other goods groups, particularly the clothing sub-group. This development is in line with the national condition, where the national Real Sales Index in May 2026 is forecast to remain stable at 225, although slightly lower than the April 2026 realisation of 226.9. Previously, the normalisation of public demand following Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriah caused Surabaya’s Real Sales Index in April 2026 to fall to 473.3 from 529.1 in March 2026. Annually, April 2026 retail sales were recorded as contracting by 3.7 percent (yoy), after growing 14.5 percent (yoy) in March 2026. By commodity group, positive growth in the spare parts and accessories group and cultural and recreational goods was not yet able to fully offset contractions in several other commodity groups. On a monthly basis, retail sales in April 2026 also contracted by 10.6 percent (mtm), after growing 9.3 percent (mtm) in March 2026, occurring across almost all commodity groups as a result of the normalisation of public demand following the Eid al-Fitr religious holiday period.