Beware! These Shares Could Face Pressure from Danantara's One-Stop Export Policy
JAKARTA. A number of coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and metal and mineral sector stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) may face negative sentiment due to the emergence of PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI).
The government has designated DSI as the single channel for exporting coal, CPO, and certain metals and minerals. This policy is seen as introducing new market uncertainty, particularly for companies with significant export exposure in these sectors.
Muhammad Fatah Al Falah, Retail Analyst at RHB Sekuritas Indonesia, said market participants are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach despite the government issuing the regulation.
He noted that markets tend to react negatively to policy uncertainty, especially regarding implementation and its impact on exporters’ cash flows.
‘Investors fear the role of the export management institution, which should merely act as a verifier, could shift to becoming a trader or market participant,’ Fatah said on Saturday (23 May 2026).
Currently, the policy focuses on coal and CPO. However, market players believe the scheme could expand to other strategic commodities such as nickel, copper, bauxite, tin, and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Meanwhile, scrutiny from international rating agencies like S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s has made foreign investors more cautious about Indonesia’s export policies.
Investors view the policy as potentially reducing exporters’ flexibility and increasing government intervention in commodity trade mechanisms.
Martha Christina, Head of Investment Information at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, noted that managing exports through a single institution is not new globally.
China has the China Rare Earth Group for rare earth exports, Saudi Arabia relies on Saudi Aramco for oil exports, and Malaysia uses Petronas for energy.
However, Martha said Indonesia faces different challenges in implementation as most major players in the commodity sector are private companies.
‘In China, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia, dominant players are state-owned enterprises (SOEs), making implementation easier. In Indonesia, the majority are private companies,’ Martha explained in a virtual briefing.
She added that the policy’s impact would be minimal for companies with dominant domestic sales, but those heavily reliant on exports are expected to be most affected.
For instance, in the coal sector, several companies have high export shares. Data from Mirae Asset Sekuritas shows PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) exports 77% of its production, PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 85%, and PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) 63%.
In the CPO sector, PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk (SMAR), PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS), and PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) have the highest export exposure.
In the nickel sector, Martha noted PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL) is likely most affected due to its sales relationship with Glencore.
PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) also has a high export share, though it currently sells nickel matte, which is not yet covered under the single-channel export scheme.
Market participants are now awaiting clarity on the policy’s implementation, including the extent of Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia’s role in the national commodity trade chain.
Uncertainty over business mechanisms and potential expansion of covered commodities is expected to continue influencing the short-term movement of export-dependent stocks.