Beware of the MJO Phenomenon: BMKG Predicts Rain in Yogyakarta from 18-20 May 2026
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The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Yogyakarta Meteorological Station, has issued an early warning regarding the potential for extreme weather in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) for the period 18 to 20 May 2026. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Phase 3 phenomenon is identified as the main trigger for cloud formation in the region.
The Head of the Yogyakarta Meteorological Station, Feriomex Hutagalung, explained that the results of atmospheric dynamics analysis show that MJO Phase 3 (Indian Ocean) is spatially active in parts of Java. This condition is supported by sea surface temperatures in the Java Sea and the southern Indian Ocean of Java, which are monitored to be warm, ranging from 28 to 29 degrees Celsius.
“The warm sea surface temperature supports the availability of water vapor in the atmosphere. However, easterly wind patterns are starting to dominate and air humidity at altitudes of 1-3 km ranges from 40-90 percent, which is beginning to show signs of dryness in some layers,” said Feriomex in his official statement on Sunday (17/5/2026).
Although there is a trend of decreasing cloud growth in some areas due to the air starting to dry out, BMKG still maps several points that have the potential to experience rain with light to moderate intensity:
BMKG appeals to people in the DIY region to remain vigilant against the potential for extreme weather that can occur suddenly within a short duration. In addition, those involved in marine activities are asked to pay attention to sea wave heights which fall into the moderate category (up to 2.5 meters) in the waters south of Yogyakarta.
The public is advised to continue updating weather information periodically through official channels on the website www.bmkg.go.id or through BMKG’s official social media to obtain more detailed data per sub-district. (Ant/I-1)
BMKG predicts that most of North Sumatra will experience light to moderate rain on Friday (15/5) due to the MJO phenomenon and convergence.
BMKG issued an early warning for heavy rain in 8 regions of Indonesia on May 12, 2026 due to the influence of ex-Tropical Cyclone Hagupit and the MJO phenomenon.