Beware of 'Leaking Hell' Hitting Indonesia, Researcher Reveals the Facts

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The El Niño phenomenon, marked by rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is forecast to arrive soon. Based on various oceanographic and atmospheric indicators, the tendency for an El Niño event to develop is occurring in the second half to the end of 2026. Therefore, all parties need to anticipate its impacts, including in Indonesia. Professor R. Dwi Susanto of the University of Maryland stated that various observational data and climate models show changes in Pacific Ocean conditions leading to the formation of El Niño. “One of the main indicators is the increasing heat reserve below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which has the potential to push the movement of warm water masses eastward,” said Professor R. Dwi Susanto, quoted from a written statement on Tuesday (16/6/2026). According to Dwi, observational data and climate models show an accumulation of heat below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. Concurrently, Kelvin waves are beginning to push warm water masses from the western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific, which is one of the characteristics of El Niño development. He assessed that these changes can be observed through subsurface sea temperatures, sea level height, and wind patterns in the tropical Pacific region. Various international climate prediction models also show the same tendency. “Indonesia holds an important position in the global climate system because it is located in the western Pacific warm pool, the region with the warmest tropical sea surface temperatures in the world,” he explained. Additionally, Indonesia is the pathway for the Indonesian Throughflow (Arlindo) connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Thus, changes in sea conditions in Indonesian waters can be an important indicator for understanding El Niño development. Monitoring sea temperatures, Arlindo dynamics, and shifts in atmospheric convection centres in Indonesia’s maritime region can help detect climate change early. Dwi further cautioned that El Niño’s impact on Indonesia is not solely determined by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Interaction with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean also plays a major role in determining the severity of the impact. “We cannot just look at the El Niño index. Indian Ocean Dipole conditions must also be monitored because the combination of both can produce a much greater impact than if only one phenomenon occurs,” he said. He cited the 1997-1998 event when a strong El Niño occurred simultaneously with a positive IOD. The combination of these two phenomena caused a significant decrease in rainfall and increased the risk of drought and forest and land fires in various parts of Indonesia. According to him, the development of a positive IOD can be monitored through changes in sea surface temperatures in the waters south of Java and Sumatra. Increasingly strong cooling in that region is generally associated with an increased risk of drought. Dwi added that several current prediction models show a chance of El Niño developing at the end of 2026 with a tendency to be in the strong to very strong category. Therefore, various mitigation measures need to be prepared early, including through water resource management, adjustment of planting patterns, and strengthening efforts to prevent forest and land fires. “Preparations must be made without causing panic. The important thing is to ensure climate information can be used as a basis for planning and mitigation,” he explained. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the 2026 dry season will trigger a delay in the first planting season. However, BMKG stressed that farmers can still take advantage of opportunities during this long dry season. “The sea surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean has passed the neutral threshold for 5 dasarian. BMKG predicts that the El Niño phenomenon will soon be active and will persist until early 2027,” said Ardhasena during a press conference on the Development of the 2026 Dry Season in Indonesia broadcast on BMKG’s YouTube channel. “The probability of El Niño intensity reaching the Moderate category is currently 98%. And the probability of reaching the Strong category is currently 62%,” he continued. This figure has risen, where previously the probability of a strong El Niño was less than 20%. Meanwhile, Ardhasena added, in the Indian Ocean there is a chance of a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon occurring during the period of June-November 2026. “The El Niño phenomenon, as we know, causes climate deviations in various parts of the world, not only in Indonesia, with different patterns and impacts,” he said. “For the Indonesian region, it is affected by El Niño suppressing rainfall. So conditions are generally drier from June 2026 to January 2027. However, it should be noted that around October 2026 we are already entering the rainy season. So, this is just a general picture of El Niño’s impact,” Ardhasena explained. Ardhasena stated that in facing this dry season, BMKG urges the optimisation of technical irrigation in areas that have irrigation systems, as well as adjusting to agricultural commodities that are adaptive to dry conditions, such as horticultural crops suitable for dry conditions. “Facing this long dry season means the first planting season could be delayed,” said Ardhasena. “But, during this dry period, farmers can also adapt by planting horticultural crops that are suitable during this dry period. So there are many things that can still be done to face this dry season condition,” he said.