Beware! Neighbouring Country's Inflation Hits 5.6%, Triggered by Fuel and Electricity

Workers sort fresh egg crates at a public market in Manila, Philippines, on Monday (4/5/2026). Rising fuel and electricity costs are expected to push inflation above 5.0% in April. According to the Manila Times, analyst consensus on Monday estimated the figure at 5.6%, up from 4.1% in March and still within the Philippine central bank’s (BSP) projection range of 5.6 to 6.4%. If realised, inflation would be above the 2.0–4.0% target for the second consecutive month and the highest since September 2023. Official April inflation data is scheduled for release by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Tuesday, 5 May. Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan stated that rising global commodity prices are driving inflation, particularly in the transportation and food sectors. Additionally, electricity tariff hikes and peso depreciation are adding to imported inflation pressures. Several institutions estimate inflation in the 5.5 to 6.0% range. Security Bank and ANZ Research highlighted rises in rice, fuel, fertiliser, and food costs, while Metrobank assessed that the global oil crisis continues to pressure domestic prices. On the other hand, HSBC and Chinabank warn that inflation could reach up to 6.2% and remain high until the end of the year. Risks stem from energy price spikes, Middle East conflicts triggering global oil increases, and potential El Niño and fertiliser supply limitations that could squeeze food production.