Beijing sees SARS peaking, rural China a worry

Beijing sees SARS peaking, rural China a worry

Juliana Liu Reuters Beijing

China said on Friday the worst appeared to be over for SARS- stricken Beijing as international experts said China faced a crucial battle in the next few months to contain the virus and stop it spreading globally.

There was worrying news from Hong Kong where a group of scientists said the virus had been mutating rapidly, making a cure or vaccine more difficult.

In Beijing, the deputy director general of the Municipal Health Bureau, Liang Wannian,told a news conference the pneumonia-like disease was peaking in the capital, the hardest hit city in the world with 91 deaths and more than 1,600 cases.

Officials stressed it was too early to say when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) would be brought under control in Beijing -- let alone in the vast country's rural areas, whose rickety healthcare system would be no match for a full-blown outbreak of the mysterious disease.

"Since April 21, the number of SARS patients in Beijing has entered the peak period," Liang said, adding the conclusion was based on figures released by the Health Ministry on Thursday.

"My personal judgment is the present high plateau of the number of cases in Beijing will continue for a period of time. Overall the situation in Beijing is stable, and the upward trend has been effectively checked," he said.

Cases of SARS in the capital will likely drop in the next 10 days, if the virus does not mutate, he said.

SARS has killed close to 200 people in China and infected nearly 4,000 since it emerged in the southern province of Guangdong late last year. Globally, it has infected more than 6,300 people in 30 countries, killing more than 400.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said China was facing a critical period.

"The next few months will prove crucial in the attempt to contain SARS worldwide, which now greatly depends on whether the disease can be controlled in China," the WHO said in a statement on its Web site (www.who.int).

Doctors say immediately isolating SARS patients is key to preventing its spread and quick treatment may help patients survive. Symptoms include high fever, cough and pneumonia, and there is no standard treatment. It is mainly passed by droplets through sneezing and coughing.

But scientists are still puzzled by the virus as it has yielded virtually no clues about where it came from or why it infects and sometimes kills people.

Hong Kong scientists said the virus was mutating so fast it could render any cure ineffective.

"Such a quick mutation means that even if there is a cure it may become ineffective. Even a diagnostic test may not be able to detect it if it has undergone change," said Dennis Lo, one of a team of microbiologists who have made a study of the virus.

The findings came as Hong Kong reported eight more deaths, figures that show the mortality rate has risen to 10.6 percent from 5 percent two weeks ago, and 2.5 percent in late March.

SARS has killed 170 people in Hong Kong and the cumulative cases have risen to 1,611, second only to mainland China.