Behind the Fuel Price Drop and the Illusion of a Solid Economy
A number of short videos on TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube have spread a narrative accusing the opposition of deliberately blowing up the issue of economic deterioration to trigger mass panic. Using an AI-generated narrator, various content accused the opposition of exploiting the rise in the United States dollar exchange rate to attack the government. They claimed the Indonesian economy is actually getting stronger, evidenced by the drop in Dexlite prices to Rp 23,000 per litre, Pertamina Dex to Rp 24,800 per litre, and non-oil and gas exports reaching Rp 774 trillion. “This is proof the government has a genius strategy for the people,” the narrator said in the video.
Tempo Fact-Check Team verified these claims through interviews and by comparing them with credible sources. The results showed that the decline in Dexlite and Pertamina Dex prices is not proof of a solid national economy because the government raised the price of non-subsidised fuel, Pertamax. Furthermore, the claim of a non-oil and gas export surge of Rp 744 trillion proved to be false. The statement contradicts data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).
A study by the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) noted that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 reached 5.61 per cent. This figure shows the domestic economy is still relatively resilient amid a global slowdown. However, this surge does not yet reflect a comprehensive strengthening of macro and micro economic fundamentals. Behind this growth, the economy is still haunted by structural vulnerabilities and high external pressures. The rupiah exchange rate had slumped to Rp 18,193 per US dollar on 8 June 2026. The fiscal condition is also under pressure after the State Budget deficit skyrocketed to Rp 240 trillion, or 0.93 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). This vulnerability is further complicated by dwindling foreign exchange reserves, coinciding with a sluggish manufacturing sector.
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), asserted that criticism of economic performance is purely based on factual data, not opposition political commodities. Those who criticise are observing that the economy is not in good shape. “So it is wrong to consider criticism of economic conditions as a partisan opposition agenda,” Bhima said. Bhima also debunked the ‘opposition attack’ narrative from a political map perspective. The reality is that the political constellation in the House of Representatives is currently dominated by government supporters. Consequently, there is almost no formal opposition force to block the current ruler’s policies.
PT Pertamina Patra Niaga did lower the prices of several non-subsidised Dex Series fuel oils starting 1 June 2026. The decline continued with changes effective 1 July 2026. In the latest policy, Pertamax Turbo prices fell from Rp 20,750 to Rp 19,300 per litre, Pertamina Dex from Rp 24,800 to Rp 21,150, and Dexlite from Rp 23,000 to Rp 19,700 per litre. This decrease also targeted domestic aviation turbine fuel at Soekarno-Hatta Airport, which dropped to Rp 19,190 from Rp 22,190 per litre. However, this decline is not the fruit of a genius government strategy to strengthen the economy. Eddy Junarsin, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business at Gadjah Mada University, assessed that the price correction purely follows international market movements referring to the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS). This step indirectly helps cut logistics costs for companies that rely on diesel fuel. Eddy considers it a big mistake if this change is claimed as a strategy to strengthen the domestic economy. This policy is purely a market mechanism that happens to be declining for Dex types. “So, it is inaccurate if the price decline of several fuel derivative products is called an economic strengthening strategy,” Eddy said.
The ‘genius strategy’ argument collapses further when looking at the most widely consumed non-subsidised fuel product, Pertamax. As of 10 June 2026, Pertamina actually hiked Pertamax prices by up to 32 per cent, from Rp 12,300 to Rp 16,250 per litre. Similarly, Pertamax Green prices soared from Rp 12,900 to Rp 17,000 per litre. The government only maintained the prices of subsidised fuels such as Pertalite at Rp 10,000 per litre and Biosolar at Rp 6,800 per litre. This jump in Pertamax prices harbours systemic risks for the economy. The surge has the potential to significantly erode the purchasing power of the middle class, which is currently crawling, expand the number of people vulnerable to poverty, and drive up food inflation. Media Wahyu Askar, a Public Policy Researcher at Celios, projected that the domino effect of the petrol price hike would spread to various sectors, ranging from accelerating credit interest rate adjustments, triggering a wave of layoffs in the third quarter, to the potential rise in crime rates due to social unrest. The policy also risks triggering a mass migration of Pertamax consumers to Pertalite to save expenses. “As a result, the Pertalite quota will increase and cause fuel subsidies to swell,” Media wrote in an official statement.
The video narrative claiming a non-oil and gas export explosion reaching Rp 774 trillion has absolutely no clear data footing. Besides obscuring the time period, official government authorities have never released such a fantasy figure. Official records from the Central Statistics Agency show the cumulative trade balance from January to May 2026 recorded a surplus of US$ 4.03 billion, supported by non-oil and gas commodities of US$ 16.31 billion.