Befriending Asia's powerful but forgotten giant

Befriending Asia's powerful but forgotten giant

Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's visit to India was,
frankly, little noticed here in Jakarta. There was not the
customary ferment of intellectual discussion that usually ushers
in state visits to China, Japan or the United States.

Despite its deep-rooted ties to this archipelago, India has
fallen off Indonesia's political radar in the last three decades.

Consigned to the historical fable of the Non-Alignment
Movement, only dimly remembered for its help in the independence
struggle, perhaps best known for its cultural "gifts" -- the
beads and baubles of Bollywood and sexy dangdut music, New Delhi
is not instinctively considered by most Indonesians as a
strategic ally of Indonesia.

Nevertheless, Susilo's three-day visit there marks an
important step for Indonesia's diplomatic positioning in the
political landscape of Asia.

Asia's geopolitical structure will in less than two decades be
dominated by the rising regional powers of China and India. Their
interactions with the U.S. hegemony, which in Asia is represented
by Japan, are likely to become central issues for the region.

Despite some comparative economic advantages, it is no
exaggeration to say that most other Asian countries, including
perhaps Indonesia, will be standing at the feet of these giants.

However, Indonesia is no fringe player in this coming
configuration, even if it cannot match India and China
economically or militarily.

Indonesia's abundance of resources -- its population,
territorial size, natural resources, and geographic location --
is more-than-adequate political capital to assume the role of
regional interlocutor between these competing powers.

Already we are seeing the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) perform this function as host of the East Asia
Summit in three weeks.

This initiative may suffice for smaller members of the
grouping. But it is not for a country like Indonesia that must
also adopt a linear approach through bilateral contacts.

Many things have been predicted of China and many of these
predictions will come true. It will be an irrepressible force in
the near future. That is why Jakarta and Beijing have both made
intense efforts -- bilaterally and through ASEAN -- to forge
closer strategic partnerships in many fields.

Compare this with the recent mutual neglect of the Jakarta-New
Delhi relationship, which a year ago was largely ceremonial
pleasantries.

Though engaging China is all-important, Indonesia cannot
afford to overlook India. It cannot place its eggs in only one
basket, the reality of realpolitik requires a counterbalance to
the emerging power to the north.

To some degree there is strategic parity today between China
and Indonesia/ASEAN. But this is equilibrium will not last as
China becomes increasingly stronger.

There is confidence that China will develop into a benign and
responsible power but no one can foretell the natural instincts
of a giant.

This is not to say that China should be looked upon with
suspicion, or that Indonesia should attempt to ally with one
regional power against another.

However, the trouble with standing at the feet of giants is
that whether intentionally or not, there is a every possibility
that one may be stepped on.

This explains the role of India as an offset to a potential
Chinese hegemony, and the reason why Indonesia was so insistent
that India be included in the new East Asia Summit framework due
to be unveiled in Kuala Lumpur next month.

We also forget that India is not some far-off location. We
Island on the northwestern-most tip of Indonesia is less than 250
kilometers from India's Nicobar Islands. That's the same distance
from Jakarta to the West Java town of Garut.

The fundamentals of closer strategic cooperation are self-
evident. Culturally and historically, India is Indonesia's most
natural ally. The only other nation that comes as close is
perhaps Malaysia, which shares a common cultural heritage.

Of course, New Delhi shoulders equal blame for the current
distance. It is far behind China in courting Indonesia. China's
investment is growing and its bilateral trade with Indonesia,
which stands at about US$15 billion, could double in a decade.
India on the other has just $4 billion worth of trade with
Indonesia.

More importantly, Indonesia is overcoming its wariness of
military cooperation with China.

Though China should be welcomed as a new development partner
and a source of foreign capital, Indonesia should now pursue
synergies with New Delhi with the same vigor

There is hope that 2005 will be a turning point in relations
between Jakarta and New Delhi. Leaders of both countries have
exchanged visits and an impressive Indian naval armada docked
here earlier this year. Susilo and Indian Prime Minister Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh will again cross paths at the summit in
Kuala Lumpur next month.

The momentum is building, and as Indonesia looks up to these
emerging giants, it is in our interest to keep India -- and China
-- on equal footing.