Befriending Asia's powerful but forgotten giant

Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's visit to India was, frankly, little noticed here in Jakarta. There was not the customary ferment of intellectual discussion that usually ushers in state visits to China, Japan or the United States.

Despite its deep-rooted ties to this archipelago, India has fallen off Indonesia's political radar in the last three decades.

Consigned to the historical fable of the Non-Alignment Movement, only dimly remembered for its help in the independence struggle, perhaps best known for its cultural "gifts" -- the beads and baubles of Bollywood and sexy dangdut music, New Delhi is not instinctively considered by most Indonesians as a strategic ally of Indonesia.

Nevertheless, Susilo's three-day visit there marks an important step for Indonesia's diplomatic positioning in the political landscape of Asia.

Asia's geopolitical structure will in less than two decades be dominated by the rising regional powers of China and India. Their interactions with the U.S. hegemony, which in Asia is represented by Japan, are likely to become central issues for the region.

Despite some comparative economic advantages, it is no exaggeration to say that most other Asian countries, including perhaps Indonesia, will be standing at the feet of these giants.

However, Indonesia is no fringe player in this coming configuration, even if it cannot match India and China economically or militarily.

Indonesia's abundance of resources -- its population, territorial size, natural resources, and geographic location -- is more-than-adequate political capital to assume the role of regional interlocutor between these competing powers.

Already we are seeing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) perform this function as host of the East Asia Summit in three weeks.

This initiative may suffice for smaller members of the grouping. But it is not for a country like Indonesia that must also adopt a linear approach through bilateral contacts.

Many things have been predicted of China and many of these predictions will come true. It will be an irrepressible force in the near future. That is why Jakarta and Beijing have both made intense efforts -- bilaterally and through ASEAN -- to forge closer strategic partnerships in many fields.

Compare this with the recent mutual neglect of the Jakarta-New Delhi relationship, which a year ago was largely ceremonial pleasantries.

Though engaging China is all-important, Indonesia cannot afford to overlook India. It cannot place its eggs in only one basket, the reality of realpolitik requires a counterbalance to the emerging power to the north.

To some degree there is strategic parity today between China and Indonesia/ASEAN. But this is equilibrium will not last as China becomes increasingly stronger.

There is confidence that China will develop into a benign and responsible power but no one can foretell the natural instincts of a giant.

This is not to say that China should be looked upon with suspicion, or that Indonesia should attempt to ally with one regional power against another.

However, the trouble with standing at the feet of giants is that whether intentionally or not, there is a every possibility that one may be stepped on.

This explains the role of India as an offset to a potential Chinese hegemony, and the reason why Indonesia was so insistent that India be included in the new East Asia Summit framework due to be unveiled in Kuala Lumpur next month.

We also forget that India is not some far-off location. We Island on the northwestern-most tip of Indonesia is less than 250 kilometers from India's Nicobar Islands. That's the same distance from Jakarta to the West Java town of Garut.

The fundamentals of closer strategic cooperation are self- evident. Culturally and historically, India is Indonesia's most natural ally. The only other nation that comes as close is perhaps Malaysia, which shares a common cultural heritage.

Of course, New Delhi shoulders equal blame for the current distance. It is far behind China in courting Indonesia. China's investment is growing and its bilateral trade with Indonesia, which stands at about US$15 billion, could double in a decade. India on the other has just $4 billion worth of trade with Indonesia.

More importantly, Indonesia is overcoming its wariness of military cooperation with China.

Though China should be welcomed as a new development partner and a source of foreign capital, Indonesia should now pursue synergies with New Delhi with the same vigor

There is hope that 2005 will be a turning point in relations between Jakarta and New Delhi. Leaders of both countries have exchanged visits and an impressive Indian naval armada docked here earlier this year. Susilo and Indian Prime Minister Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will again cross paths at the summit in Kuala Lumpur next month.

The momentum is building, and as Indonesia looks up to these emerging giants, it is in our interest to keep India -- and China -- on equal footing.