Bappenas ensures all ministries and agencies can work optimally to handle El Niño
The Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) has stated it is ensuring that every ministry and agency can work optimally to handle the El Niño phenomenon. Minister for National Development Planning Rachmat Pambudy said that Bappenas wants to ensure that the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and other institutions are truly ready to anticipate and manage the risks of the El Niño phenomenon.
Based on monitoring and predictive analysis from BMKG, Indonesia is forecast to potentially face a strong El Niño phenomenon in the second half of 2026. Without early anticipation, national economic losses due to climate change, exacerbated by El Niño, could reach more than IDR 2 quadrillion.
Consequently, Bappenas together with other ministries and agencies have formulated four key development clusters. The first is the forest, land, and agriculture cluster, where reduced rainfall poses a risk of forest and land fires, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan. In the agricultural sector, drought threatens food productivity, especially rice and plantation commodities like palm oil and coffee. Preparedness measures include strengthening firefighting operations, weather modification, activating boreholes, distributing drought-resistant seeds, improving irrigation, and protecting agriculture through insurance. Conversely, the dry season can be optimised for cultivating dry-season crops such as secondary crops, sugarcane, and certain horticultural varieties.
The second cluster is energy and water resources. Prolonged drought could reduce water reserves and river flow, impacting raw water availability and hydroelectric power plant operations. Planned responses include dredging and maintaining water storage infrastructure, conserving watersheds, and conducting weather modification operations.
The third cluster is health. High temperatures and humidity changes can create conditions favourable for disease vectors like dengue and malaria, while the dry atmosphere may increase the risk of respiratory problems. Prevention strategies focus on strengthening surveillance of climate-sensitive diseases, ensuring health facility preparedness, guaranteeing clean water supplies at health service facilities, and communicating risks to the public.
The final cluster is aquatic food. The strengthening El Niño could trigger upwelling, bringing nutrients to the surface and potentially increasing catches of pelagic fish such as skipjack, tuna, and mackerel tuna, as well as supporting national salt production. However, freshwater aquaculture and seaweed cultivation will be adversely affected by changes in water temperature and quality. Mitigation strategies include developing production calendars, utilising oceanographic data, and providing effective aquaculture technology assistance.