Banking Optimism Maintained in Third Quarter Despite Global Uncertainty
The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has noted that optimism within the banking industry remains steady for the third quarter of 2026, amidst increasing uncertainty in both the global and domestic economies. This is reflected in the Banking Business Orientation Index (IBP), which sits within the optimistic zone at 56.
This optimism is supported by expectations of strong banking performance and risk perceptions that remain controlled. The OJK’s third-quarter 2026 Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO) involved 99 respondent banks in July 2026, representing 97.91 per cent of the total assets of commercial banks based on June 2026 data.
OJK Executive Head of Banking Supervision, Dian Ediana Rae, stated that the SBPO results show the banking industry still possesses high confidence in managing risks. “This optimism is reflected in the projected growth of banking performance and the ability of banks to keep risks under control,” she said in an official statement on Thursday (10/9).
The industry’s expectations regarding macroeconomic conditions in the third quarter of 2026 are generally influenced by global dynamics, particularly regarding the potential for increased inflation and global benchmark interest rates. Nevertheless, the Risk Perception Index (IPR) was recorded at 57, placing it within the optimistic zone.
A majority of respondents believe that credit quality remains stable. The Net Foreign Exchange Position (PDN) is at a low level with a long position (foreign currency assets exceeding liabilities), and liquidity risks remain secure. The growth of Third-Party Funds (DPK) is expected to be higher than credit distribution, thereby driving an increase in net cash flow for the banking sector.
In terms of performance, the Performance Expectation Index (IEK) reached 83. Respondents project that credit will continue to grow alongside increasing demand and expansion through available pipelines. The Manufacturing sector remains the primary driver, with credit growth of 16.85 per cent year-on-year in July 2026.
Despite the optimism, all commercial bank respondents demonstrated a high level of vigilance regarding global developments that could potentially be prolonged. These dynamics are considered to have significant implications for the national economic outlook.
To date, key banking indicators, such as strong capitalisation and adequate liquidity, show good resilience. However, the OJK emphasised that sustained performance requires the support of a healthy and stable economic ecosystem to ensure that the intermediation function operates optimally.
Moving forward, the momentum of national economic growth must be maintained through efforts in stability and productivity. With strong fundamentals, the banking sector is expected to be able to maintain healthy growth and increase resilience in facing global challenges.