Bank Mandiri Predicts Indonesia's Economy to Slow in Q2, Here's the Trigger

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI) projects that Indonesia’s economic growth will slow in mid-2026. Nevertheless, the economy is expected to maintain growth of 5.1% to 5.5% in the second quarter of 2026.

“The opportunity for Indonesia’s economic growth remains stable in the range of 5.1 to 5.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026,” said Diah Ayu Yustina, Head of Macroeconomics and Financial Market Research at Bank Mandiri, during the Mandiri Macro and Market Brief 2Q26 in Jakarta on Monday (11/5/2026).

She explained that economic growth in the second quarter will not be as robust as in the first quarter, which reached 5.61%. This is because there are no economic growth catalysts, such as the Eid al-Fitr holiday period.

“This first quarter had several factors that catalysed economic growth, which will not repeat in the second, third, or fourth quarters, such as the Lebaran period, of course. This means growth in the second quarter may slow,” Dian clarified.

According to Dian, there are several issues that the government must anticipate. Entering the second quarter of 2026, several indicators of slowdown are already evident.

“Entering the second quarter, some indicators are already showing a slowdown, such as retail sales slowing and the consumer confidence index declining,” she stated.

Among other things, global sentiments that will affect public perception and confidence. Dian said the government needs to anticipate this promptly.

Nevertheless, she views that there is still support to boost economic growth in the second quarter this year. This support comes from monetary and fiscal sides.

“But we see there is still support from various policies, both on the monetary side, macroprudential, and fiscal, which are accommodative in nature; this should be able to support future growth,” Dian emphasised.