Bank Indonesia: Global Pressure Pushes Indonesia’s Balance of Payments into Deficit
Global pressures and heightened financial-market uncertainty pushed Indonesia’s balance of payments (NPI) into a deficit in Q1 2026. Bank Indonesia records a BoP deficit of US$9.1 billion, mainly due to strains in capital and financial transactions amid rising global market volatility. Nevertheless, the current account deficit remained controlled, and Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves stayed high.
Bank Indonesia’s Head of the Communications Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, said that the current account deficit remained at a manageable level despite a global economy that is slowing. “The current account deficit remains low amid global economic deceleration,” Prakoso said in a formal statement on Friday (22 May).
In Q1-2026, the current account posted a deficit of US$4.0 billion, or 1.1% of GDP, up from a deficit of US$2.5 billion (0.7% of GDP) in Q4-2025. Still, the non-oil and gas trade balance remained in surplus, albeit lower than the previous quarter due to the global economic slowdown and disruptions to cross-border trade supply chains.
On the other hand, the oil and gas trade deficit narrowed as domestic economic activity remained sustained. “The oil and gas trade deficit also declined as domestic economic activity stayed resilient,” he explained.
Bank Indonesia also noted a rise in the deficit in the primary income balance owing to higher coupon and interest payments. Meanwhile, the services balance performed better as import of services such as freight declined.
On the capital and financial account side, performance was still reasonably contained albeit shadowed by global financial-market uncertainty. Foreign direct investment continued to post a surplus, reflecting positive investor perceptions of the economy and domestic investment climate. Portfolio investment also remained in surplus, though down from the previous quarter due to higher global uncertainty.
However, other investment recorded a deficit, influenced by external debt payments maturing, placements of cash and deposits, and other assets abroad. This led to a US$4.9 billion deficit in the capital and financial account in Q1 2026, reversing a US$9.0 billion surplus in Q4 2025.
As a result, Indonesia’s BoP for Q1 2026 registered a deficit of US$9.1 billion. Nonetheless, Indonesia’s official foreign exchange reserves at the end of March 2026 remained high at US$148.2 billion, equivalent to financing 5.8 months of imports and government external debt payments. “The reserve position is above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports,” Prakoso noted.
Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global macro dynamics that could affect BoP prospects, while strengthening policy mix responses with the government and relevant authorities to safeguard external resilience. “The government and relevant authorities will strengthen external resilience,” he added.
Overall, BoP performance for 2026 is expected to remain solid, with a low current-account deficit in the range of 0.5% to 1.3% of GDP.