Baltics Open Ukrainian Drone Route, Research Reveals Scenario for Russia to Destroy Lithuania in 90 Days
Tensions in Eastern Europe have intensified following Russia’s strong warnings to the Baltic countries regarding their alleged involvement in Ukrainian drone operations. Amid this situation, a regional security study has emerged with an equally alarming scenario: the possibility that Lithuania could be incapacitated within just 90 days through long-range attacks.
Spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that Moscow has issued specific warnings to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The warnings relate to reports about the potential opening of those countries’ airspace for Ukrainian drones to attack Russia.
“Russia has issued warnings regarding the decision to open airspace as a route for Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles,” Zakharova said, as quoted by RIA Novosti some time ago.
Zakharova emphasised that if such a step is indeed taken and continues, Russia will take the necessary retaliatory actions to safeguard its security interests.
Nevertheless, reports about the opening of Baltic airspace stem from the Telegram channel Mash on 26 March and have not yet received widespread official confirmation from the relevant governments. This places the information at the level of unverified initial claims.
On the other hand, attention is also focused on a study released by the Baltic Defense Initiative, a Vilnius-based research institution. The study presents a hypothetical scenario on how Russia could pressure Lithuania without sending ground troops across the border.
In the simulation, Russia is depicted as utilising a combination of precision missiles and large waves of drones to disable vital infrastructure. Targets include power plants, bridges, hospitals, and water treatment facilities—elements that sustain civilian life and national stability.
The study even describes the use of more than 170,000 drones over approximately 60 days as part of a sustained operation. Such attacks, in the scenario, are assessed as capable of systematically weakening the country’s capacity to a critical point.
Founder of the Baltic Defense Initiative, Thiebaut Devergranne, emphasised that the simulation was compiled based on data from existing weapons systems capabilities, military production trends, and global geopolitical dynamics.