'Bali bombing to cut tourism to Indonesia by 20%'

'Bali bombing to cut tourism to Indonesia by 20%'

Agence France-Presse, Tokyo

The precedent of a tourist massacre in Egypt in 1997 suggests
Indonesia will suffer a 20 percent drop in foreign visitors
following last month's deadly bombing on the resort island of
Bali, the World Bank said in a report published Wednesday.

The number of visitors to Egypt plummeted 17 percent and
revenue from tourism fell 19 percent immediately after the attack
in Luxor which killed 60 foreign holiday makers, the bank
recalled.

"In the circumstances one could expect at least a 20 percent
drop in Indonesia's tourism after the Bali attack, which would
represent a little under a one percent loss of income," it said
in its East Asia Update.

The impact on consumer and business confidence could reduce
economic growth in 2003 by one percent, the report said, adding
that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) next year is
currently estimated to expand 3.2 percent.

The Bali bombing "is the reason why we do not have an
acceleration of growth for Indonesia next year", says Homi
Kharas, chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific at the
World Bank.

In 2001, tourism in Indonesia generated US$5.4 billion,
comprising 3.7 percent of its GDP. For the whole of Asia, which
has also been indirectly affected by the Bali drama, the tourism
industry brought it between $25 billion and $26 billion last
year, accounting for four to five percent of the region's
economic output.

The prejudice against East Asia as a holiday destination had
already intensified following the Sept. 11 attacks on New York
and Washington. Tourism to East Asia from September to December
2001 was down eight percent from a year earlier.

At that time, foreign visitors had only just started to return
to Indonesia after dropping sharply in the wake of Asia's
financial crisis in 1998, when the number of visitors dropped by
17 percent and revenue from tourism plunged 36 percent, noted the
World Bank.

"The horrific Oct. 12 attack on tourists in Bali underlines
the urgency of fighting terrorism and political violence and,
more generally, of strengthening law and order in the Southeast
Asian countries," the report said.

"The experience of countries like Egypt also shows that
tourism can recover substantially from terrorist attacks if the
government takes sufficiently firm action against the
perpetrators."