Bali bombing a blow for ASEAN tourism industry
Bali bombing a blow for ASEAN tourism industry
Sarah Stewart, Agence France-Presse, Bangkok
Southeast Asia's tourism industry, already reeling from terrorism, kidnappings and the aftermath of Sept. 11, will be badly damaged by the Bali bomb blasts, analysts said Monday.
Industry experts said the attack, which destroyed two bars packed with foreigners in the heart of Bali's holiday district, would particularly rout Indonesia's tourism sector.
"It burst one of the big bubbles, the myth that has infused the industry over the past couple of years, that certain destinations -- by dint of their cultural and ethnic camaraderie -- will not have these things happen," said Imtiaz Muqbil from the Bangkok-based Travel Impact Newswire.
However, predominantly Buddhist Thailand is hoping that it can preserve its reputation as a safe haven and prevent massive cancellations which would devastate the tourism sector as it heads into the end-of-year high season.
"Obviously in the short term this is going to have a negative impact on tourist arrivals all over Southeast Asia," said SG Securities head of research for Asia, Sriyan Pietersz.
"But beyond that potentially we could see Thailand benefiting because it has the least potential for major violence unlike say in the southern Philippines or Indonesia. Travelers obviously are going to be a little bit wary of Malaysia as well."
Regional tourism operators and hoteliers have only just recovered from the impact of the attacks on New York and Washington which prompted across-the-board cancellations.
High-profile kidnappings in the southern Philippines by the Abu Sayyaf Muslim rebel group, often targeting foreign tourists, have also added to the climate of fear.
Analysts said that any further violent incidents, or conclusive findings that the Bali bomb was planned by Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda movement and part of a regionwide terror campaign, could scare people away for good.
Financial markets in Asia began reacting to fears that the blast could depress holiday travel across the region and dampen the airline industry's recovery, with investors marking down Singapore Airlines' share price Monday.
"Clearly there's going to be a drop in tourist travel to Bali in particular but possibly throughout the Asian region," DBS Vickers Securities analyst John Casey said in Singapore.
"At a time when recovery in passenger traffic is very fragile, that could dampen investors' interest again on airline shares."
Philippine Tourism Secretary Richard Gordon said that at least in the short term, tourism in the entire Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc would be affected by the Bali incident.
"If one ASEAN country has a problem, we are all going to feel it," Gordon said.
However, he said that Bali's arrival numbers could bounce back within six months if authorities arrested those responsible and showed the world they were cracking down on security threats.
"Indonesia will have to show what it is doing to fix the problem, just as the Philippines had to show we are trying to fix (our) problem," he said.
Philippine security officials have said that security will be tightened further in areas frequented by foreign tourists in the wake of the weekend disaster which left at least 190 dead and 300 others injured.
Malaysian Tourism Minister Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir also lamented the inevitable fallout on Southeast Asia which is only just recovering from the 1997 financial crisis.
"We are sad that this is happening in the ASEAN region and we are disappointed because it will affect tourist arrivals to our region," he told reporters.
However, Pietersz said that if there were no further violent incidents the industry could pick up faster than expected, particularly as global events have rendered other popular destinations equally unsafe.
"If you look at European travelers, we are at the threshold of the high season starting in November and there aren't too many options unless you want to stay home and freeze," he said.
"You can't go to the Middle East and the rest of the high traffic sites in Asia are a little bit uncertain."