Bali bombing a blow for ASEAN tourism industry

Bali bombing a blow for ASEAN tourism industry

Sarah Stewart, Agence France-Presse, Bangkok

Southeast Asia's tourism industry, already reeling from
terrorism, kidnappings and the aftermath of Sept. 11, will be
badly damaged by the Bali bomb blasts, analysts said Monday.

Industry experts said the attack, which destroyed two bars
packed with foreigners in the heart of Bali's holiday district,
would particularly rout Indonesia's tourism sector.

"It burst one of the big bubbles, the myth that has infused
the industry over the past couple of years, that certain
destinations -- by dint of their cultural and ethnic camaraderie
-- will not have these things happen," said Imtiaz Muqbil from
the Bangkok-based Travel Impact Newswire.

However, predominantly Buddhist Thailand is hoping that it can
preserve its reputation as a safe haven and prevent massive
cancellations which would devastate the tourism sector as it
heads into the end-of-year high season.

"Obviously in the short term this is going to have a negative
impact on tourist arrivals all over Southeast Asia," said SG
Securities head of research for Asia, Sriyan Pietersz.

"But beyond that potentially we could see Thailand benefiting
because it has the least potential for major violence unlike say
in the southern Philippines or Indonesia. Travelers obviously are
going to be a little bit wary of Malaysia as well."

Regional tourism operators and hoteliers have only just
recovered from the impact of the attacks on New York and
Washington which prompted across-the-board cancellations.

High-profile kidnappings in the southern Philippines by the
Abu Sayyaf Muslim rebel group, often targeting foreign tourists,
have also added to the climate of fear.

Analysts said that any further violent incidents, or
conclusive findings that the Bali bomb was planned by Osama bin
Laden's al-Qaeda movement and part of a regionwide terror
campaign, could scare people away for good.

Financial markets in Asia began reacting to fears that the
blast could depress holiday travel across the region and dampen
the airline industry's recovery, with investors marking down
Singapore Airlines' share price Monday.

"Clearly there's going to be a drop in tourist travel to Bali
in particular but possibly throughout the Asian region," DBS
Vickers Securities analyst John Casey said in Singapore.

"At a time when recovery in passenger traffic is very fragile,
that could dampen investors' interest again on airline shares."

Philippine Tourism Secretary Richard Gordon said that at least
in the short term, tourism in the entire Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc would be affected by the Bali
incident.

"If one ASEAN country has a problem, we are all going to feel
it," Gordon said.

However, he said that Bali's arrival numbers could bounce back
within six months if authorities arrested those responsible and
showed the world they were cracking down on security threats.

"Indonesia will have to show what it is doing to fix the
problem, just as the Philippines had to show we are trying to fix
(our) problem," he said.

Philippine security officials have said that security will be
tightened further in areas frequented by foreign tourists in the
wake of the weekend disaster which left at least 190 dead and 300
others injured.

Malaysian Tourism Minister Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir also
lamented the inevitable fallout on Southeast Asia which is only
just recovering from the 1997 financial crisis.

"We are sad that this is happening in the ASEAN region and we
are disappointed because it will affect tourist arrivals to our
region," he told reporters.

However, Pietersz said that if there were no further violent
incidents the industry could pick up faster than expected,
particularly as global events have rendered other popular
destinations equally unsafe.

"If you look at European travelers, we are at the threshold of
the high season starting in November and there aren't too many
options unless you want to stay home and freeze," he said.

"You can't go to the Middle East and the rest of the high
traffic sites in Asia are a little bit uncertain."