Bali blasts: A big jigsaw puzzle without the box

Endy M. Bayuni, Deputy Chief Editor, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The official investigation into the devastating Oct. 12 bomb attacks in Bali has come under strong public scrutiny. This is natural because the subject matter is very important to the local, as well as the international, public.

The whole world wants an explanation as to who were the perpetrators of such a barbaric act, and what their motives were. The whole world would also like to see them punished accordingly.

Let's not forget that more than 190 people, Indonesians and foreigner, were killed in this tragedy, and hundreds others injured and traumatized. Hundreds of thousands of people in Bali and other parts of Indonesia now have to bear the brunt as tourism plunges, taking with it the rest of the national economy.

The stakes are just too high that the investigators must find answers to all of the most frequently asked questions by the Indonesian and international public. These answers must be credible and palatable, and for them to be credible, they must first pass the tests of public scrutiny.

To the credit of the international team of investigators, who have been working hard since day one, the team has been open and transparent about its work. Its daily briefing has kept the public informed about any progress, or even the lack of it.

This transparency, for better or for worse, has helped to keep the issue very much alive in the national agenda, and therefore has kept the public involved in the process.

Of course, the public would not easily buy every piece of information that has been churned out by the police.

Their cynicism is somehow aided by the many pundits and self- proclaimed experts who would question and challenge the validity of the police findings.

The Bali bombing case has also spawned its own conspiracy theorists, some of whom are so entirely at odds with the police, that they sow even more confusion among the already confused public.

Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network, or Abu Bakar Ba'asyir and his Jamaah Islamiyah, are not the only prime suspects. The United States and its CIA, Australia, Israel, the disgruntled Indonesian military, the disgruntled pro-Indonesia East Timorese, the supporters of former president Soeharto, have all appeared as potential suspects in the various conspiracy theories discussed by the public.

The police, therefore, face a daunting challenge in making their case convincing to an already skeptical public. Should they pass the public scrutiny test, however, their story would be credible.

Credit is due to Insp. Gen. Made Mangku Pastika, who heads the international team of police investigators in Bali. Pastika and his team, while being open about the progress of the investigation, have been careful in their statements and wary about jumping to conclusions.

In contrast to this, there are some Cabinet officials in Jakarta, and the many conspiracy theorists, who seem to have no scruples at all in making accusations and claims based on mere hunches or speculations rather than evidence. Keep this up, and the critical public will eventually be able to assess whose story is credible and whose is not.

A reality check is also necessary to help clear the confusion that these various theories have generated. Now that the police have entered a new critical phase in their investigation, it is important that they temper public expectations, which have a tendency to run faster than the police's ability to deliver.

The Oct. 12 Bali bombing is like one big jigsaw puzzle for the police to solve, but this is one puzzle in which most of its pieces are missing. Police have to find and gather the pieces first before putting them together.

Even worse, this is a jigsaw puzzle that did not come with a box, so police have little or no idea at this stage as to how the puzzle will look once the pieces have been put together. They have no picture to use as reference in putting the pieces in their proper places.

They do, however, have some of the pieces needed to pursue the investigation, although they do not have a lot with which to start.

Here is a list of what probably they do have so far: Bodies and body parts, witnesses' and survivors' accounts, traces of the explosives found at the bomb site, and the wreckage of a car believed to have been planted with one of the bombs.

Their investigation of the wreckage of a van led them to the arrest of their first suspect, Amrozi. The junior high school graduate and car mechanic has been freely admitting his role in the bombing and this, in turn, led the police to identify six of Amrozi's accomplices, including a certain Imam Samudra, whom they believe was the real mastermind behind the bombing.

Amrozi's story, of course, is not necessarily the true version of the events surrounding the planning and execution of the attacks. He may have told lies to the investigators, and even if he was telling the truth, he may not know the whole truth. His role, after all, was limited to the procurement of some chemicals, the delivery of the van, and the purchase of getaway motorcycles.

As a jigsaw puzzle, police only have a few pieces in hand and a general idea of what the picture looks like, or at least a partial picture. This picture must be verified by others, something that will only happen if more suspects are arrested.

Amrozi and his story, including the role of the six named suspects, represent a very small part of the large jigsaw puzzle. There are other pieces of the puzle scattered around that the police have in hand, but are still unable to place them in the larger picture.

The type of explosive used is one area of the investigation that the police should have been able to wrap up by now, but somehow, there is still confusion about the exact materials used in the bombs that exploded at the Sari Club and Paddy's Cafe in Kuta.

A breakthrough here could make the picture a little clearer. Once the type of explosives used have been identified, it should not be that difficult for the police to trace the source of those materials.

The analogy to a jigsaw puzzle is not meant to trivialize the investigation, but rather to illustrate the challenges facing the investigators. They have made some significant breakthrough, but they are still a long way to go before resolving the mystery.

Will the puzzle eventually be solved?

Let's hope so. Like piecing together any jigsaw puzzle, though, this will require patience and perseverance, as well as determination, to complete the picture. Let's hope the police, and the public, have what it takes to do so.