Bad vibes from the palace

The nation seems to have been getting a lot of bad vibes from the presidential palace over these last few days. On Monday, President Abdurrahman Wahid's invitation to a meeting to discuss a political compromise was snubbed by leaders of the major political parties. On Thursday, he ordered the arrest of National Police chief Gen. Surojo Bimantoro for insubordination.

While these two incidents are not necessarily related, they shed some disturbing light on the psychological state of Gus Dur, who is facing an almost certain impeachment process at the special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) next month.

The snub by the leaders of the major political parties, including Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), indicates a President who is becoming more and more politically alienated.

He could have spared himself a major embarrassment by simply not going to Bogor, south of Jakarta, where the meeting was scheduled to have taken place. He must have known beforehand that his invitations had been turned down by all except the chairman of his own Nation Awakening Party (PKB), Matori Abdul Djalil.

Alas, he traveled to the vast Bogor presidential palace, had lunch with Matori and called a news conference in which he renewed his threats of violence by his supporters if his political rivals continued with their impeachment campaign.

By turning down the invitation, his rivals were guilty of closing the door on a political compromise. But the behavior of the Muslim leader was even more reprehensible for using the language of violence instead of the language of peace in defending his presidency.

Gus Dur's order for the arrest of Gen. Bimantoro, meanwhile, shows a President who is becoming increasingly desperate.

The order is the latest move in the contest between the two men, which has been going on for over one month now. Using the carrot and stick approach, Gus Dur has been trying desperately to remove Bimantoro, who had publicly spoken against the President's plan to declare a state of emergency for the sole purpose of giving himself the power to arrest his rivals, even if the situation on the ground did not warrant such a declaration.

A defiant Bimantoro has not only refused an ambassadorship, but has also refused to stand down despite repeated calls by the President. Gus Dur apparently now has succeeded in tearing apart the police leadership and securing enough support from many of the middle-ranking officers to issue the arrest order.

What an alienated and desperate President with a penchant for violence would do next is anybody's guess. But these two events are certainly not the last in the ongoing power struggle as the pressure and momentum build up for his impeachment.

While Gus Dur cannot control his destiny and impeachment is now an almost certain, if not desirable, outcome, he still possesses enough constitutional power to influence things by virtue of his presidential office.

Gus Dur can use that power wisely or recklessly in dealing with the threat of impeachment. With so much power still vested in him, he can make a difference, if not to the outcome, certainly to the process.

The vibes emanating from the palace this week, however, are not that reassuring, for they indicate a President who is increasingly out of sync with the situation. We can only hope and pray that reality will hit home soon for his own sake, the sake of his supporters and, most of all, for the sake of this nation.