Bad vibes from the palace

Bad vibes from the palace

The nation seems to have been getting a lot of bad vibes from
the presidential palace over these last few days. On Monday,
President Abdurrahman Wahid's invitation to a meeting to discuss
a political compromise was snubbed by leaders of the major
political parties. On Thursday, he ordered the arrest of National
Police chief Gen. Surojo Bimantoro for insubordination.

While these two incidents are not necessarily related, they
shed some disturbing light on the psychological state of Gus Dur,
who is facing an almost certain impeachment process at the
special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) next
month.

The snub by the leaders of the major political parties,
including Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), indicates a
President who is becoming more and more politically alienated.

He could have spared himself a major embarrassment by simply
not going to Bogor, south of Jakarta, where the meeting was
scheduled to have taken place. He must have known beforehand that
his invitations had been turned down by all except the chairman
of his own Nation Awakening Party (PKB), Matori Abdul Djalil.

Alas, he traveled to the vast Bogor presidential palace, had
lunch with Matori and called a news conference in which he
renewed his threats of violence by his supporters if his
political rivals continued with their impeachment campaign.

By turning down the invitation, his rivals were guilty of
closing the door on a political compromise. But the behavior of
the Muslim leader was even more reprehensible for using the
language of violence instead of the language of peace in
defending his presidency.

Gus Dur's order for the arrest of Gen. Bimantoro, meanwhile,
shows a President who is becoming increasingly desperate.

The order is the latest move in the contest between the two
men, which has been going on for over one month now. Using the
carrot and stick approach, Gus Dur has been trying desperately to
remove Bimantoro, who had publicly spoken against the President's
plan to declare a state of emergency for the sole purpose of
giving himself the power to arrest his rivals, even if the
situation on the ground did not warrant such a declaration.

A defiant Bimantoro has not only refused an ambassadorship,
but has also refused to stand down despite repeated calls by the
President. Gus Dur apparently now has succeeded in tearing apart
the police leadership and securing enough support from many of
the middle-ranking officers to issue the arrest order.

What an alienated and desperate President with a penchant for
violence would do next is anybody's guess. But these two events
are certainly not the last in the ongoing power struggle as the
pressure and momentum build up for his impeachment.

While Gus Dur cannot control his destiny and impeachment is
now an almost certain, if not desirable, outcome, he still
possesses enough constitutional power to influence things by
virtue of his presidential office.

Gus Dur can use that power wisely or recklessly in dealing
with the threat of impeachment. With so much power still vested
in him, he can make a difference, if not to the outcome,
certainly to the process.

The vibes emanating from the palace this week, however, are
not that reassuring, for they indicate a President who is
increasingly out of sync with the situation. We can only hope and
pray that reality will hit home soon for his own sake, the sake
of his supporters and, most of all, for the sake of this nation.