Avoiding the worst of maneuvers

Avoiding the worst of maneuvers

Much hope is placed on a planned meeting of party leaders
initiated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan), which aims to initiate a change in leadership, says
political analyst J. Kristiadi of the Jakarta-based Centre for
Strategic and International Studies.

Question: What is your opinion on the initiative taken by PDI
Perjuangan to convene a meeting of party leaders?

Answer: I think it is an important move to avoid the worst
situation occurring, as the executive and legislative bodies as
well as the political parties are always fighting. In a way, such
a meeting will hopefully change the intentions of President
Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, who has indicated that he wants to
issue a Presidential Decree to disband the legislature. If he
really does that, it will truly be a disaster.

Q: Can you elaborate?

A: Gus Dur would most likely approach the Army, or the military
in general, before issuing the decree. The military, on the other
hand, has decided not to take sides with the government. At least
we saw that the military (faction of the House of
Representatives) tried to be neutral (by abstaining in the
House's vote issuing the second memorandum of censure against the
President).

There will also be strong objections from the public and the
political parties. The President's loyalists will also probably
realize that any attempt to disband the legislature is not in
line with the 1945 Constitution.

Q: In the absence of military support, what would be the
implication of Gus Dur's wish to issue the decree dissolving the
House?

A: I don't think anybody is supporting Gus Dur in issuing the
decree. We are now in the presidential system, which is different
from the parliamentary system in 1959, therefore the President
cannot disband the legislature.

It's not only the military, but all parties and the public are
against the idea of disbanding the House, because the situation
would become worse. And, though many do not want to acknowledge
it, the possibility of a special session (of the People's
Consultative Assembly) would be much greater.

Dissolving the House is against the 1945 Constitution. Sukarno
once issued such a decree (in 1959), but then we had the
provisional constitution. Issuing such a decree would backfire
against Gus Dur.

Q: What would Gus Dur's supporters do?

A: I hope those in his inner circle will advise him that the idea
is totally wrong. They can't defend him, they can only brief him
about the "battlefield".

Q: He seems insistent on issuing the decree...

A: Yes, I think he is supported by those who said that the
memorandum (from the legislature) is unconstitutional, that the
legislature is not functioning and so on. They don't see that the
government has lost support from many parties, domestically and
internationally.

Q: So how would PDI Perjuangan's initiative help?

A: It would be a good start for more intensive meetings, so Gus
Dur would realize that he has only one option -- handing over
power to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Q: Officially, there is not yet a clear agenda for the meeting...

A: I think it is clear that the meeting aims for a change in
leadership. Everyone (from the political parties) believes that
the prevailing government cannot be sustained.

Q: Would the Golkar Party and Gus Dur's National Awakening Party
(PKB) also believe so?

A: Golkar can do nothing but follow PDI Perjuangan, and PKB does
not want to see a special session (which could lead to
impeachment of the President).

Q: Should Megawati resign as Vice President as suggested by her
sister Rahmawati Soekarnoputri?

A: I don't think so. About 90 percent of the House members do not
support the President, and Megawati is unhappy if Gus Dur is
hurt. She wants to see everything work smoothly through a handing
over of power. I think she will convey her intention (to this
effect) to the other parties in the meeting. (I.Christianto)