Avoiding the worst of maneuvers

Much hope is placed on a planned meeting of party leaders initiated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), which aims to initiate a change in leadership, says political analyst J. Kristiadi of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Question: What is your opinion on the initiative taken by PDI Perjuangan to convene a meeting of party leaders?

Answer: I think it is an important move to avoid the worst situation occurring, as the executive and legislative bodies as well as the political parties are always fighting. In a way, such a meeting will hopefully change the intentions of President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, who has indicated that he wants to issue a Presidential Decree to disband the legislature. If he really does that, it will truly be a disaster.

Q: Can you elaborate?

A: Gus Dur would most likely approach the Army, or the military in general, before issuing the decree. The military, on the other hand, has decided not to take sides with the government. At least we saw that the military (faction of the House of Representatives) tried to be neutral (by abstaining in the House's vote issuing the second memorandum of censure against the President).

There will also be strong objections from the public and the political parties. The President's loyalists will also probably realize that any attempt to disband the legislature is not in line with the 1945 Constitution.

Q: In the absence of military support, what would be the implication of Gus Dur's wish to issue the decree dissolving the House?

A: I don't think anybody is supporting Gus Dur in issuing the decree. We are now in the presidential system, which is different from the parliamentary system in 1959, therefore the President cannot disband the legislature.

It's not only the military, but all parties and the public are against the idea of disbanding the House, because the situation would become worse. And, though many do not want to acknowledge it, the possibility of a special session (of the People's Consultative Assembly) would be much greater.

Dissolving the House is against the 1945 Constitution. Sukarno once issued such a decree (in 1959), but then we had the provisional constitution. Issuing such a decree would backfire against Gus Dur.

Q: What would Gus Dur's supporters do?

A: I hope those in his inner circle will advise him that the idea is totally wrong. They can't defend him, they can only brief him about the "battlefield".

Q: He seems insistent on issuing the decree...

A: Yes, I think he is supported by those who said that the memorandum (from the legislature) is unconstitutional, that the legislature is not functioning and so on. They don't see that the government has lost support from many parties, domestically and internationally.

Q: So how would PDI Perjuangan's initiative help?

A: It would be a good start for more intensive meetings, so Gus Dur would realize that he has only one option -- handing over power to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Q: Officially, there is not yet a clear agenda for the meeting...

A: I think it is clear that the meeting aims for a change in leadership. Everyone (from the political parties) believes that the prevailing government cannot be sustained.

Q: Would the Golkar Party and Gus Dur's National Awakening Party (PKB) also believe so?

A: Golkar can do nothing but follow PDI Perjuangan, and PKB does not want to see a special session (which could lead to impeachment of the President).

Q: Should Megawati resign as Vice President as suggested by her sister Rahmawati Soekarnoputri?

A: I don't think so. About 90 percent of the House members do not support the President, and Megawati is unhappy if Gus Dur is hurt. She wants to see everything work smoothly through a handing over of power. I think she will convey her intention (to this effect) to the other parties in the meeting. (I.Christianto)