Australian Bureau of Meteorology: El Niño Underway and Could Be Very Strong

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has stated that the El Niño weather phenomenon is currently underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean and could reach a very strong level. In an update released on Tuesday night local time, the BoM said the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific has now entered an El Niño phase. The phenomenon is triggered by rising sea surface temperatures around the equator and has the potential to significantly affect global weather patterns. “Most models indicate this event is likely to be strong to very strong,” the BoM said in a statement. The BoM explained that El Niño events are typically associated with reduced rainfall during winter and spring in Australia, particularly in the eastern part of the country, as well as increased daytime temperatures in the southern regions. A previous El Niño event that began in 2023 and ended in 2024 included the driest three-month period ever recorded in Australia, from August to October 2023. The BoM stated that forecasts suggest the current El Niño conditions will likely persist until the second half of 2026, but its impacts will be difficult to predict due to global warming. “The strength of an El Niño event does not always correspond to the magnitude of its impacts in Australia. A weaker event can have significant impacts, while a stronger one may not. However, in a warming climate, historical patterns are becoming less reliable as predictors of future impacts,” the BoM said. The BoM also noted that the chance of drier conditions in Australia will increase if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole develops, as indicated by several models.