Australia fears free Timor may fracture RI

Australia fears free Timor may fracture RI

By John Mair

SYDNEY (Reuters): Australia has welcomed the prospect of an independent East Timor but it would prefer the territory remain under Indonesian control, fearing a Balkanization of the sprawling archipelago to its north, security analysts say.

While East Timorese independence is popular with the Australian public and would remove a niggling problem from the Australia-Indonesia relationship, it could also pose substantial security challenges, say analysts.

"Australia would clearly prefer to have to deal with one country rather than two countries or even more countries," Alan Dupont, director of the Australian National University's Asia- Pacific Security Program, told Reuters.

Last week Indonesia said East Timor may be offered independence, if it rejected an offer of special autonomy.

Australia, the only Western country to recognize Indonesia's 1976 integration of the former Portuguese colony, in January announced a major policy shift, saying it would support giving East Timor the long-term option of becoming independent.

But Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said independence would be "a second-best outcome" and threaten Indonesian unity.

"We don't want to see the fragmentation of Indonesia...we don't want to see the fragmentation of countries in our region, it would create great uncertainty and instability," he said.

"Our preference would be for an arrangement where East Timor would have a high degree of autonomy, but remain legally part of Indonesia," Downer said.

This would mean Indonesia would remain responsible for East Timor's defense and foreign affairs and Australia would still only have to deal with one northern neighbor, albeit the world's most populous Moslem nation of more than 200 million people.

Security analysts said independence in East Timor could encourage other disgruntled Indonesian provinces, such as Irian Jaya and Aceh, to push for similar status.

"If that (fragmentation) were to happen, and I don't rate that likely, but nevertheless it is a possibility, then Australia's strategic environment to our immediate north is going to be complicated," Dupont said.

Analysts also warned a rapid shift to independence in East Timor would not allow time to establish a political and economic infrastructure to replace Indonesian authority, resulting in civil war between pro-independence and pro-Jakarta forces.

"It's a very volatile place. If the Indonesians pulled out tomorrow there would be fighting there," said Rawdon Dalrymple, a Sydney University professor and Australian Ambassador to Indonesia from 1981-1985.

Since the integration of East Timorese into Indonesia, an estimated 200,000 Timorese are estimated to have either died in fighting or from disease and starvation.

Avoiding regional security complications was a major factor behind Australia's most important diplomatic pact -- the Agreement on Maintaining Security, signed by Indonesia and Australia in 1995.

"The agreement is essentially about building a structure for the future of Australia to reduce uncertainties over the next 10 to 20 years, and with it Indonesia is offering us the opportunity to shape the region," said former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating in announcing the security alliance.

East Timor independence also threatens Australia with economic fall-out. Independence could force Australia to renegotiate the Timor Gap treaty, which covers potentially billions of dollars worth of oil and gas.

The 61,000 square km (23,552 square miles) Zone of Cooperation in the area between Australia and Timor was set up in 1989 by the Australian and Indonesian governments.

"The really big issue that would have to be negotiated between Australia and an independent East Timor is the oil and gas fields," said Sydney University's Dalrymple.

"They might demand a better deal than the Indonesians got...it would be very dislocating for major Australian interests," Dalrymple said.

Those interests include The Broken Hill Pty Co Ltd, one of Australia's largest companies, Petroz NL, Santos Ltd and Woodside Petroleum Ltd. U.S. company Phillips Petroleum Co also has interests in the region.

Revenues from the Timor Gap are estimated to eventually reach some US$11 billion, based on reserves of 30 million barrels of oil and 175 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas as well as plentiful supplies of condensate and natural gas.

But there would also be positives for Australia from the emergence of an independent East Timor.

"The average Australian feels pretty suspicious and reasonably negative about Indonesia, largely because of East Timor, so I think you can build a much more substantive long-term relationship again if you remove the whole East Timor thing," said the Australian National University's Dupont.