Asia's growing defense clout questioned

Asia's growing defense clout questioned

SINGAPORE (AFP): Growing military influence in non-security matters and spiralling weapons spending in a period of peace pose serious political and economic problems for Asian countries, according to a regional think-tank.

The Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd. (PERC) said the dangers of a major military conflict in the foreseeable future were low in the region despite "hot spots" in the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.

"This raises the question, therefore, of why defense spending in Asia is growing more rapidly than in any other region in the world ...," said the PERC's fortnightly Asian Intelligence, received here over the weekend.

It said the buying spree "could jeopardize regional harmony by sowing the seeds of distrust among neighboring governments and making consensus and compromise more difficult."

Southeast Asia, with US$9 billion in weapons purchases or 22 percent of global sales, overtook the Middle East in 1995 as the world's third largest defense market after the United States and Europe, the report noted.

"It's almost as if buying an F-18 (fighter) is a matter of national pride, " it said.

"Growing military clout could also adversely affect the political stability within the countries doing the spending as well as be a source of eventual economic problems for these nations," the report said.

"While regional wars are not a prospect we rate as very high in the coming decade, military risks could take other forms that are nevertheless worrying."

Warning of "military ineptness" in Asia, PERC said only four economies had put forward "a really coordinated, forward-looking military development program" -- Japan, China, Singapore and Hong Kong.

The report rated tiny Singapore's armed forces as the best- equipped and one of the most professionally run in Asia, noting not only the city-state's modern weapons but also its mandatory military service of two-and-a-half years for all able-bodied young men.

Hong Kong, which reverts to Chinese rule in July 1997, is expected to work out an arrangement with China under which the colony would shoulder much of the maintenance costs of defense forces, somewhat similar to the way it is now paying for 65 percent of the upkeep of the British Garrison, the report said.

The Indonesian armed forces, long preoccupied more with internal matters, came under strong criticism in the report.

"If ever there was a military which was not quite able to bring itself to focus on its primary role of defending the country against external aggression, the Indonesian armed forces is surely a good candidate," PERC said.

Malaysia is determined to accelerate the transformation of its military into a modern defense force "capable of backing up the nation's territorial claims in the South China Sea and elsewhere," it said.

The Philippines, which closed a major U.S. naval base in 1992, has one of the weakest armed forces in the region, with troops lacking discipline and a clear focus, but the modernizing military has ceased to be a "tool of repression" and a source of coup plots.

PERC said increasingly prosperous Thailand was wary of its neighbors and planning its defenses accordingly.

"Spectacular economic growth has not produced a sense of security in defense terms but instead is perceived as dangerous because, with the country so much richer, poorer neighboring nations may find it an inviting target," it said.

Bangkok is worried by unresolved disputes over fishing rights, as well as ethnic and other insurgences in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia which could drag in Thai forces, the report said.

In Vietnam, where wars against foreign invaders have been a constant of history, the military is adjusting to a peacetime environment and has gone into business while remaining a key element in the ruling communist politburo and central committee, PERC said.