Asian woes halt arms buying spree

Asian woes halt arms buying spree

By Marcus Eliason

HONG KONG (AP): The timing was unfortunate. On Aug. 10,
Thailand became the first East Asian country to own and operate
an aircraft carrier -- just as its economy was lurching into
turmoil.

Beyond the question of why a smallish nation needs an aircraft
carrier, there looms a larger unknown: Is the gloss about to fade
on Asia's decade-long weapon buying spree?

Thailand is one of several big Southeast Asian weapons
customers that have been suffering currency and stock market
upheaval since July, triggered by a perception that their
economic miracle is wearing thin and revealing the flaws within
their systems.

Until the downturn, Asia was projected to overtake the Middle
East as the world's biggest regional arms market. "This is no
longer the case," writes Felix Soh, foreign editor of Singapore's
Straits Times.

The problems in the Thai economy have already forced some big-
ticket items to be canceled, including a billion-dollar spy-
communications satellite, two submarines and 400 new armored
troop carriers.

One reason given for Asia's hefty purchases is that with the
end of the Cold War, the United States is no longer seen as a
rock-solid guarantor of regional peace.

Another is the rise of China to the verge of superpower
status, and its claim on islets that straddle shipping lanes and
fishing grounds in the South China Sea.

Many countries simply need to upgrade antiquated weaponry and
shift from confronting internal security problems to external
ones.

Malaysia, for instance, plans to spend US$2 billion to
modernize its armed forces between 1996 and 2000, buying tanks,
frigates, fighters, helicopters and communications systems.

Having finally quelled an internal guerrilla war, "they want
to modernize, streamline and be more prepared for a conventional
role," says S. Arun Asanam, assistant managing editor of the
Asian Defense Journal in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia's capital.
Malaysia and the other eight members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations spend a total of nearly $9 billion a year
on defense.

But ASEAN is hardly NATO, and it is difficult to see how any
one of its members alone can pose an effective deterrent to
China.

Nor are there any local disputes that look likely to flare
into war. "I do not see anybody getting ready to charge across
somebody else's border or even threatening them," retired Gen.
Colin Powell, former chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff,
said in Singapore on Oct. 1.

The main exception is Taiwan, which China regards as a
secessionist province to be recovered by force if necessary.
Despite Chinese efforts to cut off its arms sources, Taiwan is
getting 150 U.S.-made F-16 warplanes and 60 Mirage 2000-5s from
France, plus 130 homemade fighters.

It is also buying Patriot missile systems, helicopters and
early-warning aircraft.

If the West won't deliver, Russia is eager to oblige.
Indonesia is buying 12 Russian-made Su-30K jet fighters, having
canceled purchase of nine U.S. F-16 warplanes because Congress
criticized its human rights record in East Timor.

Singapore has just ordered four submarines from Sweden.
As for Thailand, the aircraft carrier it bought from Spain
carries nine jump jets and six helicopters, has a range of 10,000
nautical miles, and will be used for sea rescue, Thai Deputy
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej says.

"There is no compelling military imperative for Thailand to
possess a carrier -- other than prestige," wrote Soh, the editor
in Singapore.