Asian woes halt arms buying spree

Asian woes halt arms buying spree

By Marcus Eliason

HONG KONG (AP): The timing was unfortunate. On Aug. 10, Thailand became the first East Asian country to own and operate an aircraft carrier -- just as its economy was lurching into turmoil.

Beyond the question of why a smallish nation needs an aircraft carrier, there looms a larger unknown: Is the gloss about to fade on Asia's decade-long weapon buying spree?

Thailand is one of several big Southeast Asian weapons customers that have been suffering currency and stock market upheaval since July, triggered by a perception that their economic miracle is wearing thin and revealing the flaws within their systems.

Until the downturn, Asia was projected to overtake the Middle East as the world's biggest regional arms market. "This is no longer the case," writes Felix Soh, foreign editor of Singapore's Straits Times.

The problems in the Thai economy have already forced some big- ticket items to be canceled, including a billion-dollar spy- communications satellite, two submarines and 400 new armored troop carriers.

One reason given for Asia's hefty purchases is that with the end of the Cold War, the United States is no longer seen as a rock-solid guarantor of regional peace.

Another is the rise of China to the verge of superpower status, and its claim on islets that straddle shipping lanes and fishing grounds in the South China Sea.

Many countries simply need to upgrade antiquated weaponry and shift from confronting internal security problems to external ones.

Malaysia, for instance, plans to spend US$2 billion to modernize its armed forces between 1996 and 2000, buying tanks, frigates, fighters, helicopters and communications systems.

Having finally quelled an internal guerrilla war, "they want to modernize, streamline and be more prepared for a conventional role," says S. Arun Asanam, assistant managing editor of the Asian Defense Journal in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia's capital. Malaysia and the other eight members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations spend a total of nearly $9 billion a year on defense.

But ASEAN is hardly NATO, and it is difficult to see how any one of its members alone can pose an effective deterrent to China.

Nor are there any local disputes that look likely to flare into war. "I do not see anybody getting ready to charge across somebody else's border or even threatening them," retired Gen. Colin Powell, former chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in Singapore on Oct. 1.

The main exception is Taiwan, which China regards as a secessionist province to be recovered by force if necessary. Despite Chinese efforts to cut off its arms sources, Taiwan is getting 150 U.S.-made F-16 warplanes and 60 Mirage 2000-5s from France, plus 130 homemade fighters.

It is also buying Patriot missile systems, helicopters and early-warning aircraft.

If the West won't deliver, Russia is eager to oblige. Indonesia is buying 12 Russian-made Su-30K jet fighters, having canceled purchase of nine U.S. F-16 warplanes because Congress criticized its human rights record in East Timor.

Singapore has just ordered four submarines from Sweden. As for Thailand, the aircraft carrier it bought from Spain carries nine jump jets and six helicopters, has a range of 10,000 nautical miles, and will be used for sea rescue, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej says.

"There is no compelling military imperative for Thailand to possess a carrier -- other than prestige," wrote Soh, the editor in Singapore.