Asian woes cut world thermal coal demand
Asian woes cut world thermal coal demand
SYDNEY (Reuters): Economic disruption in Asia was a major
factor behind a big cut in forecast world demand for thermal coal
in calendar 1997, a coal conference here was told yesterday.
Convenor of the 1998 Global Coal Market conference, Gerard
McCloskey, said McCloskey Coal Information Services Ltd's
forecast increase in world 1997 thermal coal demand had been
halved to 8.2 million tons from the forecast of 16.7 million
tons for the same year made a year ago.
The forecast 8.2 million tons increase was on the 262.1
million ton demand of 1996.
Europe's 1997 demand had been revised down by three million
tons while Asia's forecast demand growth had been cut by five
million tons to 8.7 million.
Total Asian demand in 1996 was 132.7 million tons.
The forecast demand cuts were based on lower than scheduled
coal demand from new Japanese power stations which came on stream
in 1996 and 1997.
Taiwan's state-owned Taiwan Power Co was also turning
increasingly to independent power projects, he said.
The big change on the supply side had been a cut in forecast
U.S. availability for 1997, changing an earlier forecast of a
four million ton increase on 1996 supply of 29.9 million tons to
a decrease of five million tons, he said.
Australia's 1997 supply was forecast to increase by eight
million tons from the 61.8 million tons in 1996, he said.
Indonesian supply was forecast to increase by 4.3 million
tons from the 31.3 million tons of 1996 while Colombian supply
was forecast to rise by 4.0 million tons from 18.4 million
tons.
World demand in 1998 was forecast to rise by 19.6 million
tons, mainly in the Asia/Pacific, while total supply was forecast
to rise by 15.35 million tons.
Indonesia
Indonesia was seen as contributing the biggest increase in
supply, of 5.8 million tons, while Australia was seen increasing
supply by 4.0 million tons.
South Africa supply was seen rising by 2.25 million tons and
U.S. supply by 1.5 million tons.
Rescue for the world coal market would not occur with a sudden
rebound of prices, McCloskey told the conference.
Uncertainty in Asia would temper demand growth in 1998, with
Japan's economy "lame" and elsewhere in Asia tigers turning into
kittens, he said.
McCloskey's list of negative influences of the coal market
included falling prices, high costs, Chinese sales on the spot
market, rising Indonesian exports, declining production by the
Japanese steel mills which could push more semi-soft coking coal
onto the steaming coal market, an overall decline in European
demand, growth in the Asian spot market, and expanding South
American production.
These were tempered by the U.S. retreat from the export
market, doubts about South American coal investments, stronger
economic performances by some European countries, emerging demand
from India and the determination of some major players to get
their production arrangements "right".