Asian vehicle sales face new slowdown

Asian vehicle sales face new slowdown

SINGAPORE (AFP): After accelerating for two years, car and truck sales in Asia are facing a fresh slowdown in 2001 as regional economies falter, but it will be more manageable than the fall during the last Asian crisis, an industry monitor said Friday.

"It could be worse," London-based industry strategists autopolis said in a statement released here, noting that 2000 marked a record year in some countries. It also said sales in a number of markets continued to hold up well this year despite "jitters in America."

It predicted a 4.3 percent year-on-year decline in vehicle sales in Asian countries to under 11.44 million units in 2001, following increases of 7.8 percent in 2000 and 11.6 percent in 1999. Autopolis predicted a milder fall in 2002 before a pick-up in 2003.

Car and truck sales in Japan are likely to fall only slightly this year, although production will decline more than sales, and the market in China will continue to grow. While Indian sales are dropping, the threat from used-vehicle imports has largely been averted.

Although Southeast Asian markets are easing back after a comfortable six months, sales should still grow in Malaysia in 2001, while demand in South Korea has continued to expand, autopolis said. Taiwan, however, will see a marked decline.

Autopolis attributed the new slowdown, following the recovery from the 1997-98 Asian crisis, to the drop in Asian countries' exports to the US market, the hike in oil prices and declines in regional share prices and currencies.

Some Asian countries including Japan could face a new economic crisis, autopolis said.

"It's not all rosy. But when sales in the US are going to drop 20 percent and with a 10 percent fall coming in Europe, the outlook for Asia is not bad at all," said Graeme Maxton, an economist with the firm.

The China market was forecast to hit 2.14 million units in 2001, up from 2.09 million in 2000.

In four key Southeast Asian markets -- Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand -- autopolis predicted a 9.9 percent fall in vehicle sales to 892,000 in 2001, following a robust 61.4 percent jump in 2000.