Asian Rice Prices Soar, Iran Conflict and Fertiliser Costs Blamed
Asian rice prices have surged sharply, recording the largest increase in more than two years. The Iran conflict, which has triggered a spike in fuel and fertiliser prices, is cited as one of the main causes, even leading some farmers in Thailand to halt paddy planting.
Thai white rice with a 5 per cent broken rate, the benchmark for Asian rice prices, rose 10 per cent to US$423 per tonne, or approximately Rp7.19 million per tonne (assuming an exchange rate of Rp17,000 per US dollar), in the week ending 8 April.
This increase is the largest since August 2023. Nevertheless, rice prices are still within a long-term downward trend and had previously reached their lowest level in more than a decade.
The price surge is beginning to reflect the real impact of rising agricultural production costs, particularly due to higher energy and fertiliser prices following the Iran war, which has worsened the global situation.
Senior commodity analyst at Rabobank in Singapore, Oscar Tjakra, said several farmers in Thailand have begun delaying or even stopping paddy cultivation because the profits obtained are no longer sufficient to cover continuously swelling operational costs.
“Some farmers in Thailand have suspended paddy cultivation because their profits are not enough to cover the costs that continue to grow,” he said, as quoted from The Economic Times on Tuesday, 21 April 2026.
According to Tjakra, the situation is further exacerbated by a prolonged dry season that has significantly reduced harvest yields and tightened supply from the current harvest.
“This challenging situation is worsened by a long dry season, which has significantly reduced harvest yields and tightened supply from the current harvest,” he said.
In addition, he highlighted the strengthening of the Thai baht, as well as higher shipping and insurance costs due to the war in the Middle East, as additional factors driving rice prices even higher.
Tjakra said the strengthening baht and higher shipping and insurance costs due to the war in the Middle East are also contributing to the rice price surge.
Thailand itself is the world’s third-largest rice exporter based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This position makes changes in production and prices in the country highly influential on the global rice market, including in Asia.