Asian rice mart likely to stay tight this year

Asian rice mart likely to stay tight this year

TOKYO (Reuter): Asia's rice market, accounting for over 90
percent of world rice trade, is likely to remain tight late this
year, reflecting emerging import demand by China and Indonesia,
regional officials said yesterday.

Rice imports by China soared 814.7 percent to 1.39 million
tons in the first eight months of 1995, from only 150,000 tons in
the same period of last year, Chinese customs data shows.

China is the world's largest rice producer and traditionally a
net exporter. But after being hit by floods in 1994, China sent
shock waves through the world market late last year by imposing a
virtual export ban on rice.

"China's rice exports have been very small in the first eight
months in 1995, around 30,000 tons. The rice export ban will last
at least until the end of this year," an official of Chinese
state food monopoly CEROIL said.

Rice prices in China are still at a high level, reflecting
supply concerns. The crop price reached 3,000 yuan ($361) per ton
in southern China and 4,200 to 4,300 yuan ($506 to $518) in
northern China.

But an official of the Chinese State Statistical Bureau's
agriculture section said: "China's output of early rice increased
this year, and the middle and late-season rice harvest will start
in mid-October." Chinese officials have said early rice output
this year will reach 42.18 million tons, up 3.18 percent from
last year. Early rice accounts for 40 percent of the total
output.

Up to now, growth of mid-season and later rice crops has been
good and output from them is expected to show an increase, the
Chinese official said.

He declined to give rice output targets for 1995 and 1996,
saying they were state secrets.

Indonesia

Unhusked rice output in Indonesia, another major producer in
the region, fell to 46.4 million tons last year from 48.18
million tons in 1993, following a severe drought.

This forced Jakarta to import rice for the first time since it
became self-sufficient in the staple in 1984.

Indonesian government sources said the country imported about
1.1 million tons of rice last year, with some deliveries being
made this year.

The Jakarta government will decide by next month on the need
to import rice for a second straight year after sharply lower
output last year.

The Philippines was also forced to import 245,000 tons of rice
from Thailand, Vietnam, China, India and Japan to cap prices
after a drought damaged the dry-season crop and caused a supply
shortage in the third quarter of the year.

Philippine Agriculture Secretary Roberto Sebastian has said
unmilled rice output will reach 11 million tons in 1995 and
should rise to 12 million tons in 1996.

But the minister said last week that over 130,000 tons of
unmilled rice has been lost to a series of typhoons and storms
that has struck the Philippines recently.

Rice prices in the Philippines, reflecting the lower supplies,
have remained high at around 25 to 26 pesos (96 cents to $1) per
kg from an average of around 14 to 15 pesos four months ago.

Floods have also hit rice output in Thailand.

The Bangkok government said that widespread flooding has
destroyed an estimated 1.1 million tons of paddies, or about six
percent of the country's main crop (May/January), which is now
expected to come in at around 17 million tons.

But the country's combined two-crop harvest during the 1995-96
(May/April) season is not expected to be reduced substantially
due to abundant rains and full irrigation dams.

Meanwhile, India and Japan are likely to enjoy bumper rice
harvests this year.

India's rice production in 1994-95 (July/June) is estimated at
a record 81.25 million tons, an increase of about 2.2 million
tons over the previous year.

New Delhi, flush with supplies after bumper harvests, has
allowed exports of 2.0 million tons of non-Basmati rice in 1995-
96 fiscal year, ending next March.

Japan's Agriculture Ministry late last month estimated rice
output in fiscal 1995-96 (April/March) at 10.8 million tons,
against 10 million tons of annual consumption.

In 1994, the country produced 11.61 million tons. "We still
hold up to 1.8 million tons of leftover rice from last year and
see no immediate concerns about supply," a ministry official
said.