Asian island decision unlikely to herald breakthroughs for other claimants
Asian island decision unlikely to herald breakthroughs for other claimants
Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore
An Indonesian warship prowling the horizon off the disputed
Malaysian diving paradise isle of Sipadan can steam home because
of a landmark court decision half a world away.
But it is unlikely that other claimants in the several
territorial disputes simmering in Asia will follow Indonesia and
Malaysia by seeking a ruling from an outside body such as the
International Court of Justice.
Our Islands ran the banner headline in Malaysia's biggest
selling English-language newspaper, The Star. But officials
restrained themselves from gloating over the decision in The
Hague that the two tiny islands of Sipadan and Ligitan, disputed
since 1969, belonged to Malaysia and not to Indonesia.
The maturity displayed by Malaysia and Indonesia is less in
evidence in the Spratly islands in the South China Sea where
China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia have
been engaged in an undignified scramble for toeholds on these 400
scattered reefs and atolls.
"It is especially important at this time, when the region is
under so much scrutiny, that ASEAN members exhibit maturity in
handling bilateral relations," Datuk Jawhar Hassan, director-
general of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies
in Kuala Lumpur, told Singapore's Straits Times.
But maturity may be at a premium. China has a dispute with
Japan, over what Tokyo calls the Senkaku islands and which Tokyo
holds. Japan claims Tokdo island, which is in South Korean hands.
And Japan's claims to the Northern Territories, four rocky
islands that Russia calls the Kurils, remain a thorn in relations
more than half a century after Soviet troops seized them in the
dying days of World War II.
"I wish that this would be a precedent for northeast Asia
because it would make sense," said Ralph Cossa, president of the
Pacific Forum CSIS in Hawaii.
Possession may be nine-tenths of the law and claimants
elsewhere in Asia clearly believe that, preferring to hold onto
what they've got than to take the 10 percent chance of losing in
an international court ruling.
"Neither side is willing on the principle that everyone knows
it's ours and we don't have to yield," said Cossa.
If Japan were to lose Tokdo to South Korea, as would be the
likely outcome of international arbitration, Tokyo would stand a
much better chance of gaining the Senkakus where its claim is
stronger, said Cossa.
But China is unlikely ever to agree to the jurisdiction of an
outside court given the implications for other sovereignty issues
-- most particularly its campaign for reunification with Taiwan.
Thus stalemate is likely to persist in territorial disputes
elsewhere in the region and which almost all involve China.
The challenge for claimants will be to ensure that no dispute
becomes a flashpoint that would plunge neighbors into conflict.
A glance at the International Court of Justice decision on
idyllic, coral-ringed Sipadan serves at least to remind claimants
that an alternative exists to the type of sea battle that erupted
between Vietnam and China in the Spratlys in 1988 and cost the
lives of nearly 90 Vietnamese sailors.
"This is a very important development... it shows that you can
hope to have a stable maritime regime in Southeast Asia," said
Ralf Emmers at Singapore's Institute of Defence and Strategic
Studies.
"But I'm not sure it will have significance for the Spratly
islands," he said, adding that countries in the region prefer
confidence-building and talks to international arbitration.