Asian exports to grow strongly in next two quarters: Morgan Stanley
Asian exports to grow strongly in next two quarters: Morgan Stanley
Agence France-Presse, China
Asian exports should boom in the next two quarters after strong growth in the U.S., supported by modest expansions in Japan and Europe, Morgan Stanley's chief economist in the region said on Tuesday.
Andy Xie also said that within two years, China is expected to replace the United States as the biggest export market for East Asia.
"We have probably two more quarters of high growth, relatively high growth then it's going to come down with a high base," Xie told reporters on the sidelines of a conference organized by the U.S. investment bank here.
He said U.S. economic growth peaked in the third quarter to September when it surged to a 19 year-high of 7.2 percent, and should continue to expand by more than four percent in the next four quarters.
Japan should grow 2.5 percent and Europe two percent in the next few quarters.
"Put these stories together (and) our exports should do quite well. At least we have two quarters of relatively good times to come," he said.
In a presentation to the conference, Xie said East Asian exports are restructuring around China to take advantage of the giant nation's sizzling economic growth.
By doing so, East Asian countries avoid competing with China in the U.S. market.
While the U.S. buys increasingly from China to replace imports from East Asia, countries in the region export directly to China.
"We expect China to replace the U.S. as the biggest market for East Asia within two years," he said.
Xie also urged the U.S. to relax restrictions on the sale of goods to China to reduce its trade deficit with Beijing.
"The problem is that America does not want to sell to China what China wants," he said.
For example, China sources most of its machinery imports from Germany and Japan and semiconductor imports from countries like South Korea. It buys raw materials from Australia, Brazil, South Africa and India.
Machinery equipment accounts for 45 percent of China's total imports and would have been valued at US$200 billion this year.
"In this picture, the U.S. industry is not there. It is only when the U.S. relaxes its export restrictions on high-tech equipment (to China), then the trade again can become more two way," he said.
The U.S. trade deficit with China last year amounted to $103 billion, nearly a quarter of the global U.S. shortfall.