Asian economies will continue rapid growth: UN
Asian economies will continue rapid growth: UN
Agence France-Presse, Hong Kong
The resilience shown by Asia-Pacific economies in the past year is set to continue in 2004 -- barring unexpected shocks -- driven by intra-regional trade, the UN's economic and social arm said Friday.
The UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) survey for 2003 released Friday said the region shook off the SARS outbreak and Iraq war, with its developing countries posting robust growth of six percent.
The survey of 20 countries predicted the region's developing economies would expand by 6.2 percent in the current year. Inflation was expected to maintain its recent downward trend, with consumer prices increasing by 3.0 percent in 2004 after the previous year's 3.6 percent.
"ESCAP countries have enjoyed two years of economic growth, faster than that experienced by both the global economy and other groups of developing countries," the survey said.
"Negative developments like SARS have only had a minor impact indicating the region's resilience.
"Other things being equal, the collective growth rate in the ESCAP developing countries should continue at the same pace while inflation should remain subdued in most parts of the region in 2004 despite rising commodity prices."
Asia's developing economies were expanding at a faster rate than the global economy, with the region becoming less dependent on the rest of the world and so able to absorb external shocks, it said.
"Growth is becoming more autonomous in that it is the result primarily of forces within the region, such as intra-regional trade and strong domestic demand, although exports to the rest of the world continue to play a significant part in sustaining the overall momentum of growth."
The ESCAP survey said China's remarkable performance had been central to the momentum of the entire region's growth, with the country's economy expanding by almost a quarter in the three years to 2003.
"China is now the fourth-largest trading nation in the world, thus helping to stimulate output growth across a broad front in the regional economy," it said.
"Similar trends are visible in several other economies of the region, where robust growth has resulted from a combination of higher net exports and domestic demand."
The report, however, warned governments to remain vigilant about current risks in the global economy, especially large current account imbalances, and take measures to shield their economies from financial market and exchange rate volatility.
"Prospects for 2004 indicate a continuation of existing trends on the assumption that the region experiences no negative shocks, the unraveling of global imbalances does not generate major disruptions in the financial markets and the economies of the region are able to maintain sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
"The possible emergence of assets bubbles in stock markets and in real estate should be given due attention by policymakers," it said.
Despite the strong economic growth in the region, the commission said poverty remained a challenge for many countries and suggested specific measures to provide the poor with economic opportunities.