Asian economies will continue rapid growth: UN
Asian economies will continue rapid growth: UN
Agence France-Presse, Hong Kong
The resilience shown by Asia-Pacific economies in the past
year is set to continue in 2004 -- barring unexpected shocks --
driven by intra-regional trade, the UN's economic and social arm
said Friday.
The UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (ESCAP) survey for 2003 released Friday said the region
shook off the SARS outbreak and Iraq war, with its developing
countries posting robust growth of six percent.
The survey of 20 countries predicted the region's developing
economies would expand by 6.2 percent in the current year.
Inflation was expected to maintain its recent downward trend,
with consumer prices increasing by 3.0 percent in 2004 after the
previous year's 3.6 percent.
"ESCAP countries have enjoyed two years of economic growth,
faster than that experienced by both the global economy and other
groups of developing countries," the survey said.
"Negative developments like SARS have only had a minor impact
indicating the region's resilience.
"Other things being equal, the collective growth rate in the
ESCAP developing countries should continue at the same pace while
inflation should remain subdued in most parts of the region in
2004 despite rising commodity prices."
Asia's developing economies were expanding at a faster rate
than the global economy, with the region becoming less dependent
on the rest of the world and so able to absorb external shocks,
it said.
"Growth is becoming more autonomous in that it is the result
primarily of forces within the region, such as intra-regional
trade and strong domestic demand, although exports to the rest of
the world continue to play a significant part in sustaining the
overall momentum of growth."
The ESCAP survey said China's remarkable performance had been
central to the momentum of the entire region's growth, with the
country's economy expanding by almost a quarter in the three
years to 2003.
"China is now the fourth-largest trading nation in the world,
thus helping to stimulate output growth across a broad front in
the regional economy," it said.
"Similar trends are visible in several other economies of the
region, where robust growth has resulted from a combination of
higher net exports and domestic demand."
The report, however, warned governments to remain vigilant
about current risks in the global economy, especially large
current account imbalances, and take measures to shield their
economies from financial market and exchange rate volatility.
"Prospects for 2004 indicate a continuation of existing trends
on the assumption that the region experiences no negative shocks,
the unraveling of global imbalances does not generate major
disruptions in the financial markets and the economies of the
region are able to maintain sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
"The possible emergence of assets bubbles in stock markets and
in real estate should be given due attention by policymakers," it
said.
Despite the strong economic growth in the region, the
commission said poverty remained a challenge for many countries
and suggested specific measures to provide the poor with economic
opportunities.