Asian economic view brighter: Poll

Asian economic view brighter: Poll

SINGAPORE (Reuters): Asian countries appear to be hauling themselves out of their economic slump but progress is patchy, a Reuters poll of more than 100 research units shows.

The survey, which excluded Japan, showed that on the whole expectations had turned a bit more bullish.

Economic forecasts for this year were improved for nine out of 13 countries, compared with data from a similar poll in December.

The latest poll included forecasts for 2000, when all the surveyed economies including battered Indonesia are expected to be back on a growth path.

China was comfortably ahead of the rest of the region, with growth forecast at 7.4 percent both this year and next, although that lagged December's poll forecast of 7.8 percent for 1999, and actual growth at this level for last year.

Analysts believe IMF bailout patient South Korea could now post 2.2 percent growth this year, instead of an 0.6 percent contraction envisaged in December, and grow 3.4 percent in 2000.

Other economies appeared to be on course for at least marginal growth this year, except for Indonesia and Hong Kong where further shrinkage was forecast.

Forecasts for those two countries however, were improved.

Their economies were expected to contract 4.13 percent and 1.86 percent respectively, versus December's projections of 5.80 and 2.2 percent shrinkage.

Taiwan's forecast growth for 1999 was trimmed to 4.68 percent from December's 4.95 percent projection, but is expected to move beyond five percent next year as private investment picks up after the March 2000 presidential election.

Malaysia's outlook improved, with forecasts now suggesting a modest 0.18 percent growth this year versus an expectation last December of slight shrinkage. Nearly three percent growth is envisaged for 2000.

Australia ranked among the best prospects this year with expected growth of 4.2 percent in fiscal 1998/99 to June, well up on December's 3.4 percent forecast, but this was seen slipping to 2.9 percent the following year.

India was expected to end fiscal 1998/99 this month with 5.02 percent growth, rising to 5.39 in the year ahead.

Thailand, also pursuing tough IMF-sponsored reforms, is expected to achieve 0.1 percent growth this year -- trimmed from the 0.4 percent forecast in December -- but its economy is expected to expand 2.8 percent next year.